TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Tomas Andrle 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118811119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Tomas Andrle below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jan Steffan at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 42–28 Tomas Andrle Tomas Andrle has won 28 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5254.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Steffan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-28 in 70
Steffan
Correct
gap of 14 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1413 vs Andrle 1449
Andrle
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 40% vs Andrle 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 30% vs Andrle 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +1 · Andrle -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Steffan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.666 / Andrle 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Steffan)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233392
Steffan1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 116 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 89 of 112
Andrle2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 41 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan5wins
AwayAndrle5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan33.3%1 of 3
AwayAndrle42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan3Andrle7n = 10Andrle took 7 of 10
S2Steffan5Andrle5n = 10split evenly
S3Steffan4Andrle6n = 10Andrle took 6 of 10
S4Steffan5Andrle4n = 9Steffan took 5 of 9
S5Steffan4Andrle2n = 6Steffan took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanAndrleS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match44.343.1+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanAndrleBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 967 vs 231 / 47647.6%48.5%460 / 967 vs 231 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.67/Andrle 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 00:30J. Steffan521311117102T. Andrle53159611123
LSep 16 · 18:00J. Steffan2678110T. Andrle351111133
LSep 11 · 09:30J. Steffan4511118962T. Andrle48871111113
WSep 11 · 08:30J. Steffan47611612123T. Andrle501181110102
WAug 11 · 00:30J. Steffan4011711113T. Andrle32511791
WAug 4 · 15:00J. Steffan491061111113T. Andrle4312115692
WJul 31 · 00:30J. Steffan538101113113T. Andrle49111281172
LJul 29 · 00:30J. Steffan37119981T. Andrle3631111113
LJul 17 · 01:00J. Steffan4011111081T. Andrle4213612113
WJul 15 · 01:00J. Steffan541211911113T. Andrle4314511672
J. Steffan10
WOct 4 · 00:00O. Kucirek2.10101191162J. Steffan1.67127114113LOct 3 · 22:30M. Placek1.401111113J. Steffan2.757930LOct 3 · 08:59O. Fejtek1.801111113J. Steffan1.917760LOct 3 · 08:30J. Didi1.88111011113J. Steffan1.82812971WOct 3 · 07:30J. Steffan1.73117118123O. Fejtek2.00611811102LOct 3 · 06:28V. Nohejl1.8311811113J. Steffan1.83911271LOct 2 · 01:30J. Steffan2.63811891M. Placek1.4411711113LOct 2 · 00:30K. Darin1.5371111113J. Steffan2.38117491WOct 1 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.836470J. Steffan1.831111113LOct 1 · 22:30J. Steffan1.91139130P. Picek1.801511153
T. Andrle10
LOct 3 · 23:30T. Andrle1.805111271M. Placek1.9111314113LOct 3 · 22:00T. Andrle1.57141111972J. Didi2.25167911113WSep 26 · 03:00P. Picek1.771191081T. Andrle1.9381112113LSep 26 · 01:30T. Andrle2.0011911542K. Darin1.73911711113WSep 26 · 00:30R. Bartunek2.633680T. Andrle1.441111113LSep 25 · 23:30O. Kucirek2.00114911123T. Andrle1.73811118102LSep 25 · 22:30T. Andrle1.809117101P. Picek1.9111811123WSep 24 · 02:58P. Picek1.734830T. Andrle2.001111113LSep 24 · 01:30T. Andrle2.10510110J. Jnr1.671112133WSep 24 · 00:30O. Kucirek2.0056131172T. Andrle1.731111116113
Upcoming Matches
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T. Andrle
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