TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Radek Bartunek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116711117––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Bartunek to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Radek Bartunek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Radek Bartunek at 66.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 11–14 Radek Bartunek Martin Stefek has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2866.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bartunek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Bartunek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1351 vs Bartunek 1361
Bartunek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Bartunek 40%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Bartunek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Bartunek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Bartunek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartunek form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.75 / Bartunek 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Bartunek)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233286
Stefek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 182 of 422
Down 0–1, comes back21% 49 of 230
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 137
Bartunek1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 111 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it89% 84 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayBartunek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartunek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek80%4 of 5
AwayBartunek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek7Bartunek3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S3Stefek1Bartunek9n = 10Bartunek took 9 of 10
S4Stefek1Bartunek6n = 7Bartunek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekBartunekS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.138.5−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekBartunekBasisWin rate · lifetime618 / 1286 vs 337 / 65848.1%51.2%618 / 1286 vs 337 / 658Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartunekStefek 2.75/Bartunek 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Bartunek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 23:30M. Stefek4011117113R. Bartunek33961171
LSep 23 · 03:30M. Stefek2481150R. Bartunek351113113
LSep 23 · 01:00M. Stefek391111891R. Bartunek4013511113
LSep 21 · 18:30M. Stefek34117881R. Bartunek3961111113
LSep 15 · 03:00M. Stefek2711970R. Bartunek351311113
LSep 15 · 02:30M. Stefek25311741R. Bartunek4111811113
WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek45111166113R. Bartunek4396111162
WAug 25 · 23:00M. Stefek331111113R. Bartunek218940
WAug 22 · 03:28M. Stefek531112145113R. Bartunek54810161192
LAug 22 · 02:30M. Stefek31913361R. Bartunek44111111113
M. Stefek10
WOct 4 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.5759111192M. Stefek2.25111182113WOct 3 · 22:00M. Stefek1.8011118123L. Sulava1.912911101LOct 3 · 09:30M. Syroha2.25411119113M. Stefek1.5711851152WOct 3 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67111110113M. Vilhan2.10781241WOct 3 · 07:30M. Barta2.101110111172M. Stefek1.67131286113LOct 3 · 06:00M. Stefek1.2886100M. Syroha3.501111123LOct 2 · 17:00M. Stefek1.701151071M. Barta2.0581112113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Stefek1.679950M. Vilhan2.101111113LOct 2 · 15:30M. Barta2.10115720113M. Stefek1.67511111892WOct 2 · 14:00M. Stefek1.911314113M. Novotny1.80111290
R. Bartunek10
WOct 4 · 01:30R. Bartunek2.631111113M. Smrcek1.446970WOct 4 · 00:30L. Sulava3.006460R. Bartunek1.361111113WOct 3 · 22:30R. Bartunek2.2081111133V. Dolezal1.611175111LOct 1 · 03:00J. Didi2.101311113R. Bartunek1.6711780LOct 1 · 02:00V. Kosar2.201111133R. Bartunek1.6176110WOct 1 · 00:30R. Bartunek2.63121174113A. Svoboda1.44107111182LSep 30 · 23:00R. Bartunek1.40711100J. Didi2.751113123LSep 30 · 22:00O. Fejtek1.50911118123R. Bartunek2.50118611102LSep 30 · 02:00O. Fejtek1.6711147113R. Bartunek2.108121171LSep 30 · 00:30R. Bartunek3.002790P. Picek1.361111113
Upcoming Matches
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