TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radek Bartunek vs Adam Svoboda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210117711411118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:24 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Bartunek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 65.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Radek Bartunek 6–10 Adam Svoboda Radek Bartunek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2465.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Svoboda
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartunek 1380 vs Svoboda 1389
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartunek 20% vs Svoboda 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartunek 10% vs Svoboda 50%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartunek -4 · Svoboda -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartunek 2.625 / Svoboda 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Svoboda)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13217226
Bartunek2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 40 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Svoboda1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it88% 50 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartunek4wins
AwaySvoboda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartunek75%3 of 4
AwaySvoboda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartunek4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S2Bartunek3Svoboda7n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S3Bartunek5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S4Bartunek1Svoboda3n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S5Bartunek2Svoboda1n = 3Bartunek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartunekSvobodaB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.535.6−2.1per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartunekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 660 vs 189 / 36851.5%51.4%340 / 660 vs 189 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaBartunek 2.63/Svoboda 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bartunek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 00:30R. Bartunek45121174113A. Svoboda47107111182
LJul 11 · 02:58R. Bartunek4011511672A. Svoboda50811911113
LJul 11 · 02:00R. Bartunek377111181A. Svoboda3811133113
LJun 19 · 23:00R. Bartunek2771190A. Svoboda351113113
LMay 16 · 02:30R. Bartunek165920A. Svoboda331111113
LApr 18 · 03:30R. Bartunek215970A. Svoboda331111113
WApr 17 · 23:00R. Bartunek331111113A. Svoboda196670
LApr 11 · 03:29R. Bartunek28101080A. Svoboda351212113
WApr 11 · 01:30R. Bartunek521091111113A. Svoboda3812116272
WApr 4 · 00:30R. Bartunek361114113A. Svoboda2881280
R. Bartunek10
LSep 30 · 23:00R. Bartunek1.40711100J. Didi2.751113123LSep 30 · 22:00O. Fejtek1.50911118123R. Bartunek2.50118611102LSep 30 · 02:00O. Fejtek1.6711147113R. Bartunek2.108121171LSep 30 · 00:30R. Bartunek3.002790P. Picek1.361111113WSep 29 · 23:00R. Bartunek2.20111011123M. Placek1.616129101LSep 29 · 22:00J. Steffan1.831171111113R. Bartunek1.8391113352LSep 26 · 02:00P. Picek1.36111188113R. Bartunek3.0076111162LSep 26 · 00:30R. Bartunek2.633680T. Andrle1.441111113LSep 25 · 23:00R. Bartunek2.755540K. Darin1.401111113LSep 25 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.101511113R. Bartunek1.6713970
A. Svoboda10
LSep 30 · 23:30O. Fejtek1.801120113A. Svoboda1.9161830LSep 30 · 22:30A. Svoboda1.5391211101V. Kosar2.3811146123LSep 28 · 13:28L. Malek1.5312811113A. Svoboda2.381011781LSep 28 · 12:00L. Malek1.531112113A. Svoboda2.3881050WSep 28 · 11:00J. Novotny2.1011921182A. Svoboda1.67711116113WSep 28 · 10:30A. Svoboda1.5711117113V. Kosar2.25921191LSep 28 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.43911861T. Nohejl2.6011411113WSep 28 · 08:30M. Stefek2.6311710101A. Svoboda1.4491112123WSep 28 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.911111143T. Nohejl1.8097120WSep 28 · 06:28J. Moravek1.835460A. Svoboda1.831111113
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