TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Bernacki vs Wojciech Wojtaszczyk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121012116611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeWojciech Wojtaszczyk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Bernacki above · Wojciech Wojtaszczyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Wojciech Wojtaszczyk at 65.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Bernacki 1–3 Wojciech Wojtaszczyk Lukasz Bernacki has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5365.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bernacki 1330 vs Wojtaszczyk 1440
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bernacki 20% vs Wojtaszczyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bernacki 40% vs Wojtaszczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bernacki -3 · Wojtaszczyk -1
Bernacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Wojtaszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wojtaszczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBernacki 2.50 / Wojtaszczyk 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Wojtaszczyk)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232559
Bernacki2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 39 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Wojtaszczyk1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 370 of 537
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it85% 290 of 343
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBernacki1wins
AwayWojtaszczyk3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderWojtaszczyk leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bernacki2Wojtaszczyk2n = 4split evenly
S2Bernacki2Wojtaszczyk2n = 4split evenly
S3Bernacki1Wojtaszczyk3n = 4Wojtaszczyk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBernackiWojtaszczykB − WBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.837.0+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBernackiWojtaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 500 vs 576 / 86150%66.9%250 / 500 vs 576 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WojtaszczykBernacki 2.50/Wojtaszczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Wojtaszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wojtaszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 3 · 05:40L. Bernacki4881191192W. Wojtaszczyk44116115113
LJul 24 · 22:55L. Bernacki3099120W. Wojtaszczyk361111143
LJul 24 · 16:55L. Bernacki3811710101W. Wojtaszczyk4051112123
WMay 2 · 06:25L. Bernacki351212113W. Wojtaszczyk28101080
L. Bernacki10
LOct 3 · 12:40L. Bernacki2.2061011131P. Polok1.6111129153LOct 3 · 11:25L. Bernacki1.736190J. Jesiek2.001111113LOct 3 · 10:10S. Sojka1.441112123L. Bernacki2.63910100WOct 3 · 09:25L. Bernacki1.40711117113O. Sokolowski2.7511471182LOct 3 · 08:10L. Bernacki1.73102100J. Jesiek2.001211123WOct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.007140L. Bernacki1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:40W. Wojtaszczyk1.44116115113L. Bernacki2.6381191192WOct 3 · 04:55L. Bernacki1.36111311123O. Sokolowski3.008155101LOct 3 · 03:50L. Bernacki2.001081151S. Sojka1.7312115113WOct 2 · 17:05L. Bernacki1.92116511113P. Slosarczyk1.8071111822
W. Wojtaszczyk10
LOct 3 · 13:05S. Sojka1.8311113113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83891181WOct 3 · 12:15W. Wojtaszczyk1.281111113O. Sokolowski3.509960LOct 3 · 10:35W. Wojtaszczyk1.83911111192J. Jesiek1.83111399113LOct 3 · 09:50P. Polok1.831112510113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83610111282LOct 3 · 08:35W. Wojtaszczyk1.257111161O. Sokolowski3.7511913113LOct 3 · 06:55W. Wojtaszczyk1.61118921S. Sojka2.2071111113WOct 3 · 05:40W. Wojtaszczyk1.44116115113L. Bernacki2.6381191192WOct 3 · 04:10W. Wojtaszczyk1.366131110113G. Sawicki3.00111171272WOct 3 · 03:00W. Wojtaszczyk1.6111114143J. Jesiek2.207611121WSep 27 · 14:20J. Wieczerzak2.0087110W. Wojtaszczyk1.731111133
Upcoming Matches
L. Bernacki
Nothing scheduled
W. Wojtaszczyk
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