TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Bernacki vs Pawel Polok 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61110121191315––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:33 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Bernacki above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 87 set 4, 13-15 · our read held Pawel Polok at 60.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Bernacki 1–1 Pawel Polok Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3360.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bernacki 1338 vs Polok 1474
Polok
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bernacki 40% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bernacki 40% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bernacki -2 · Polok +3
Polok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBernacki 2.20 / Polok 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Polok)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13233028
Bernacki2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 39 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Polok1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 123 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it83% 101 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBernacki1wins
AwayPolok1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricBernackiPolokB − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.533.5+1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBernackiPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 499 vs 175 / 27350.1%64.1%250 / 499 vs 175 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolokBernacki 2.20/Polok 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki49111011173P. Polok343124151
LSep 5 · 19:10L. Bernacki206860P. Polok331111113
L. Bernacki10
LOct 3 · 13:55L. Bernacki2.5010101161W. Wojtaszczyk1.5012126113LOct 3 · 11:25L. Bernacki1.736190J. Jesiek2.001111113LOct 3 · 10:10S. Sojka1.441112123L. Bernacki2.63910100WOct 3 · 09:25L. Bernacki1.40711117113O. Sokolowski2.7511471182LOct 3 · 08:10L. Bernacki1.73102100J. Jesiek2.001211123WOct 3 · 06:30G. Sawicki2.007140L. Bernacki1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:40W. Wojtaszczyk1.44116115113L. Bernacki2.6381191192WOct 3 · 04:55L. Bernacki1.36111311123O. Sokolowski3.008155101LOct 3 · 03:50L. Bernacki2.001081151S. Sojka1.7312115113WOct 2 · 17:05L. Bernacki1.92116511113P. Slosarczyk1.8071111822
P. Polok10
WOct 3 · 14:20P. Polok1.5751111113J. Jesiek2.25115581WOct 3 · 11:50S. Sojka2.10991131P. Polok1.6711119113WOct 3 · 11:00P. Polok1.36116611113O. Sokolowski3.0031111232WOct 3 · 09:50P. Polok1.831112510113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83610111282LOct 3 · 08:00M. Koczyba2.2012117113P. Polok1.581011191WOct 3 · 07:10K. Adamus2.0081013101P. Polok1.70111211123WOct 3 · 06:25P. Polok1.421115113W. Pytlas2.5591390WOct 3 · 04:50P. Polok1.351111113P. Mecik2.955540LOct 3 · 04:00T. Lojtek—1913113P. Polok—171150WSep 29 · 16:40P. Polok1.421111113M. Baron2.609680
Upcoming Matches
L. Bernacki
Nothing scheduled
P. Polok
Oct 4 · 03:50P. Polok1.50R. Idaczyk2.50—Oct 4 · 04:30P. Polok1.40W. Buczynski2.75—Oct 4 · 06:05P. Polok1.50J. Jesiek2.50—Oct 4 · 06:55P. Polok—D. Swider——Oct 4 · 07:45P. Polok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Oct 4 · 09:00P. Polok—W. Buczynski——Oct 4 · 10:10P. Polok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Oct 4 · 11:50P. Polok1.50R. Idaczyk2.50—Oct 4 · 13:05P. Polok—D. Swider——Oct 4 · 14:40P. Polok—J. Jesiek——
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