TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Nemec vs Martin Zajicek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4115111141416––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:45 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Zajicek to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Martin Zajicek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 76 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Martin Zajicek at 58.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 1–5 Martin Zajicek Michal Nemec has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Nemec beat Zajicek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zajicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Zajicek
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1387 vs Zajicek 1480
Zajicek
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 60% vs Zajicek 40%
Nemec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 60% vs Zajicek 40%
Nemec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec +1 · Zajicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zajicek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.63 / Zajicek 1.44
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zajicek)-5.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13212703
Nemec2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 84 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 84
Zajicek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 12 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it54% 7 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNemec1wins
AwayZajicek5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderZajicek leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZajicek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec2Zajicek4n = 6Zajicek took 4 of 6
S2Nemec2Zajicek4n = 6Zajicek took 4 of 6
S3Nemec2Zajicek4n = 6Zajicek took 4 of 6
S4Nemec2Zajicek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricNemecZajicekN − ZBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match29.840.3−10.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecZajicekBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 762 vs 56 / 11547.5%48.7%362 / 762 vs 56 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZajicekNemec 2.63/Zajicek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Zajicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zajicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 28 · 17:50M. Nemec344511141M. Zajicek4211114163
WSep 28 · 14:20M. Nemec4311118133M. Zajicek336511111
LJul 13 · 10:55M. Nemec194690M. Zajicek331111113
LJun 3 · 15:20M. Nemec3841112472M. Zajicek501171011113
LOct 7 · 14:15M. Nemec84130M. Zajicek331111113
LOct 7 · 10:40M. Nemec3711841132M. Zajicek51911119113
M. Nemec10
WSep 28 · 16:20M. Nemec2.501111113F. Musil1.504790LSep 28 · 15:20M. Nemec3.0045111172R. Zeman1.36111175113WSep 28 · 14:20M. Nemec2.6311118133M. Zajicek1.446511111WSep 27 · 13:20J. Brynych2.05911511102M. Nemec1.68117118123LSep 27 · 12:20M. Nemec1.6110880J. Brynych2.201211113WSep 27 · 11:20M. Nemec2.25111119113O. Hula1.5793111162LSep 27 · 10:20M. Nemec3.005550R. Zeman1.361111113WSep 24 · 21:58R. Zeman1.36811119132M. Nemec3.00119911153LSep 24 · 20:50M. Nemec3.001013691R. Zeman1.36121111113WSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113
M. Zajicek10
WSep 28 · 16:50R. Zeman2.25112551M. Zajicek1.5771111113WSep 28 · 15:50M. Zajicek1.801061111113F. Musil1.9112117722LSep 28 · 14:20M. Nemec2.6311118133M. Zajicek1.446511111LAug 19 · 22:05Z. Vyskocil4.158111211113M. Zajicek1.19111310882LAug 19 · 20:55M. Zajicek1.61119115152C. Kratochvil2.20811911173LAug 19 · 19:55M. Zajicek1.91114941T. Barsa1.8061111113LAug 19 · 18:55M. Zajicek1.7310330Z. Vyskocil2.001211113LJul 30 · 22:25M. Zajicek1.1911811232Z. Vyskocil3.90511711113WJul 30 · 20:55Z. Dusek2.5011281382M. Zajicek1.506111111113WJul 30 · 20:25Z. Vyskocil1.7311370M. Zajicek2.001115113
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