TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Polok vs Jacek Wieczerzak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111191168111210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Polok above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pawel Polok at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Polok 1–0 Jacek Wieczerzak Jacek Wieczerzak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:36What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Polok 1439 vs Wieczerzak 1466
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 40% vs Wieczerzak 60%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 50% vs Wieczerzak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +1 · Wieczerzak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.80 / Wieczerzak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polok)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13201024
Polok1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 113 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it82% 93 of 113
Wieczerzak1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 42 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePolok1wins
AwayWieczerzak0wins
Polok leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPolokWieczerzakP − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.021.0+15.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 252 vs 155 / 29063.5%53.5%160 / 252 vs 155 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.80/Wieczerzak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 27 · 03:50P. Polok361411113J. Wieczerzak2112180
P. Polok10
WSep 27 · 10:10P. Polok2.631111153A. Cichocki1.4449130LSep 27 · 09:00P. Polok1.808890W. Wojtaszczyk1.911111113LSep 27 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.441111113P. Polok2.638490WSep 27 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.2586111162P. Polok1.57111166113LSep 27 · 06:05P. Polok1.91119781S. Szostok1.8051111113LSep 27 · 04:30P. Polok1.80117151182W. Wojtaszczyk1.91811178113WSep 27 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8312180P. Polok1.831411113WSep 26 · 13:55R. Piechnik3.254980P. Polok1.331111113WSep 26 · 13:05M. Lach1.91711671P. Polok1.8011611113LSep 26 · 12:15P. Polok1.405990J. Jesiek2.751111113
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 27 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.676950J. Wieczerzak2.101111113WSep 27 · 11:00J. Wieczerzak1.9191111113S. Szostok1.80118811LSep 27 · 09:50J. Wieczerzak1.361041171Z. Sobkow3.0012116113LSep 27 · 08:10J. Wieczerzak2.209117111W. Wojtaszczyk1.6111511133WSep 27 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.671191151J. Wieczerzak2.1013117113WSep 27 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.386560J. Wieczerzak1.531111113WSep 27 · 04:55J. Wieczerzak1.9111115113S. Szostok1.80751161LSep 27 · 03:50J. Wieczerzak1.8312180P. Polok1.831411113LSep 26 · 16:40J. Wieczerzak1.6737110W. Buczynski2.101111133WSep 26 · 15:05Z. Sobkow2.454116101J. Wieczerzak1.5011811123
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