TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maksymilian Miastowski vs Tibor Spanik 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111119711118116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 55.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 7–13 Tibor Spanik Maksymilian Miastowski has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Miastowski beat Spanik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1809 vs Spanik 1929
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 40% vs Spanik 70%
Spanik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -1 · Spanik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 2.20 / Spanik 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Spanik)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13200653
Miastowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 68
Spanik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 149 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski75%3 of 4
AwaySpanik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S2Miastowski2Spanik8n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S3Miastowski6Spanik4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S4Miastowski4Spanik3n = 7Miastowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiSpanikM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.7−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime575 / 1115 vs 257 / 46251.6%55.6%575 / 1115 vs 257 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikMiastowski 2.20/Spanik 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski56111614153T. Spanik5181812131
LSep 26 · 12:55M. Miastowski381112691T. Spanik4481411113
LSep 26 · 04:55M. Miastowski37871571T. Spanik46111113113
WSep 15 · 05:15M. Miastowski5181111213T. Spanik481199191
LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2071120T. Spanik351113113
WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski361114113T. Spanik2561270
LAug 29 · 13:20M. Miastowski4589111162T. Spanik44111156113
LAug 29 · 07:45M. Miastowski371071191T. Spanik3812114113
WJul 19 · 09:00M. Miastowski5311101011113T. Spanik4351212682
LJul 19 · 06:30M. Miastowski216780T. Spanik331111113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 27 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6711611113M. Miastowski2.10711951WSep 27 · 10:50G. Adamiak2.201210811112M. Miastowski1.611012115133WSep 27 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.8391390M. Miastowski1.831115113WSep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski2.10111614153T. Spanik1.6781812131LSep 27 · 06:30K. Petas1.831111123M. Miastowski1.8376100LSep 27 · 05:40K. Kolodziej1.67111112113M. Miastowski2.10971491WSep 27 · 04:55M. Miastowski1.531111133G. Adamiak2.3884110LSep 27 · 03:45M. Miastowski2.502121141M. Jadczyk1.5011148113LSep 26 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.25711512113M. Miastowski1.57119111042LSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691
T. Spanik10
WSep 27 · 11:15K. Kolodziej2.20811111042T. Spanik1.61118512113WSep 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk2.009950T. Spanik1.731111113LSep 27 · 09:00K. Petas2.001112113T. Spanik1.7371040LSep 27 · 08:05M. Miastowski2.10111614153T. Spanik1.6781812131LSep 27 · 05:15K. Petas1.8361211113T. Spanik1.831110831WSep 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.50111091182T. Spanik1.50912117113WSep 27 · 03:00K. Kolodziej2.251511951T. Spanik1.5717311113WSep 26 · 14:35T. Spanik1.611111113K. Kolodziej2.208960WSep 26 · 12:55T. Spanik1.6781411113M. Miastowski2.101112691WSep 26 · 11:40T. Spanik1.7314511113A. Abbasi2.001211791
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
T. Spanik
Sep 27 · 14:10T. Spanik1.57G. Adamiak2.25—Sep 28 · 03:00T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—Sep 28 · 04:30T. Spanik1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 28 · 05:15T. Spanik2.25J. Kosowski1.57—Sep 28 · 07:20T. Spanik1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 28 · 08:05T. Spanik1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Sep 28 · 09:00T. Spanik1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Sep 28 · 10:25T. Spanik1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 28 · 11:15T. Spanik1.67K. Petas2.10—Sep 28 · 13:20T. Spanik2.25J. Kosowski1.57—
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