TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kuzmicz vs Petr David 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111210811119116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:41 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 74 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Petr David at 69.1%
74 points drawn · the score is 19 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 2–2 Petr David Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 21h before this match
David beat Kuzmicz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1845 vs David 2013
David
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 0% vs David 80%
David
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 30% vs David 70%
David
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz -6 · David +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans David)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 2.75 / David 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (David)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13188887
Kuzmicz2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 126 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back32% 37 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
David1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 228 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it97% 115 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 170 of 205
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKuzmicz2wins
AwayDavid2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz2David2n = 4split evenly
S2Kuzmicz4David0n = 4Kuzmicz took 4 of 4
S3Kuzmicz2David2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKuzmiczDavidK − DBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.836.5+0.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime704 / 1224 vs 644 / 97457.5%66.1%704 / 1224 vs 644 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidKuzmicz 2.75/David 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 24 · 07:45J. Kuzmicz4291171142P. David50119118113
WSep 16 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz341211113P. David2610880
WSep 16 · 07:20J. Kuzmicz361411113P. David2612770
LApr 5 · 15:35J. Kuzmicz358111331P. David4411715113
J. Kuzmicz10
LSep 25 · 05:40K. Wloczko2.00118127113J. Kuzmicz1.73611101172LSep 25 · 03:45J. Kuzmicz2.00671191M. Jadczyk1.7311115113LSep 24 · 07:45J. Kuzmicz4.0091171142P. David1.22119118113LSep 24 · 06:30J. Kuzmicz2.25611761A. Abbasi1.5711811113LSep 24 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz2.38112941J. Zandecki1.5361111113LSep 24 · 04:10S. Kolasa1.8311911113J. Kuzmicz1.83611691LSep 24 · 03:25J. Kuzmicz2.6391191182A. Grela1.44116119113WSep 23 · 08:05A. Grela1.4057111192J. Kuzmicz2.75111187113LSep 23 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.6191111113J. Kuzmicz2.20116891WSep 23 · 05:15S. Kolasa1.83811991J. Kuzmicz1.8311711113
P. David10
LSep 25 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.101513123P. David1.671311100WSep 25 · 03:25M. Miastowski2.6381170P. David1.441113113WSep 24 · 14:35P. David1.308111011113K. Kolodziej3.4011412782WSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101LSep 24 · 11:40P. David1.53881191S. Kolasa2.3811115113WSep 24 · 10:00P. David1.3011159113A. Daniel3.409131181LSep 24 · 09:00P. David1.671151161J. Zandecki2.1081113113WSep 24 · 07:45J. Kuzmicz4.0091171142P. David1.22119118113LSep 24 · 06:55S. Kolasa1.9115611113P. David1.801311981WSep 24 · 06:05P. David1.61115711113A. Grela2.2091111572
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