TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Grzegorz Mucha 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.82
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911119113––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.88
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
114911119113––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 12–6 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Nocun
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1442 vs Mucha 1371
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Mucha 40%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Mucha 30%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -1 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.82 / Mucha 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13184208
Nocun1.82
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 328 of 495
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 173
Up 1–0, closes it85% 239 of 281
Mucha1.88
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 47 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayMucha4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun55.6%5 of 9
AwayMuchan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun9Mucha1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S2Nocun7Mucha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun3Mucha7n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S4Nocun5Mucha4n = 9Nocun took 5 of 9
S5Nocun2Mucha4n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.941.9+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime693 / 1159 vs 155 / 31259.8%49.7%693 / 1159 vs 155 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.82/Mucha 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 02:35Z. Nocun51711148113G. Mucha46119121132
WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun3811115113G. Mucha37981191
WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun4013115113G. Mucha371171181
LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun45123711122G. Mucha551011119143
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun381111163G. Mucha2446140
LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun4511116892G. Mucha44831111113
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun4211115962G. Mucha46581111113
LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun50121171192G. Mucha531081113113
WAug 12 · 21:20Z. Nocun49116813113G. Mucha47911111152
WAug 12 · 15:25Z. Nocun4111811113G. Mucha30411691
Z. Nocun10
WSep 24 · 18:45M. Baran2.25161151322Z. Nocun1.571881111113LSep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek3.401111113Z. Nocun1.303980WSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak1.83510140Z. Nocun1.831112163LSep 23 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538850WSep 23 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.2011930Z. Nocun1.611311113WSep 23 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.2511810131Z. Nocun1.5781112153WSep 23 · 20:05A. Staniczek3.2531250Z. Nocun1.331114113WSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113WSep 23 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.251061161Z. Nocun1.5712116113WSep 23 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.6348121152Z. Nocun1.441111104113
G. Mucha10
LSep 21 · 02:35Z. Nocun1.67711148113G. Mucha2.10119121132WSep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha1.6112811113J. Skorupa2.201011861LSep 21 · 24:10M. Guzik1.17611711113G. Mucha4.5011411892LSep 20 · 22:55A. Zmijewski1.3611136173G. Mucha3.0071111151WSep 20 · 21:20K. Rybak4.5012490G. Mucha1.171411113LSep 20 · 20:30M. Guzik1.1711111110113G. Mucha4.5091321292LSep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha1.5311711872J. Skorupa2.38911811113LSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.6711115113G. Mucha2.10981191LSep 20 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.441111113G. Mucha2.633790WSep 20 · 15:25K. Rybak4.50811101192G. Mucha1.17119127113
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