TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adam Staniczek vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119118––––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Staniczek above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 75.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Adam Staniczek 11–44 Zbigniew Nocun Adam Staniczek has won 11 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Staniczek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-44 in 55
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 33 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1246 vs Nocun 1451
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 205 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 20% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 40% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek -2 · Nocun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 3.40 / Nocun 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13182495
Staniczek3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 116 of 466
Down 0–1, comes back11% 33 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 226
Nocun1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 323 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it85% 235 of 277
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniczek2wins
AwayNocun8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNocun87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S2Staniczek3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Staniczek4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Staniczek1Nocun4n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniczekNocunS − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.838.4−5.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 1006 vs 693 / 115936.4%59.8%366 / 1006 vs 693 / 1159Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunStaniczek 3.40/Nocun 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek331111113Z. Nocun203980
LSep 23 · 20:05A. Staniczek2031250Z. Nocun361114113
LSep 17 · 01:30A. Staniczek418119131Z. Nocun4611911153
LSep 16 · 19:30A. Staniczek134540Z. Nocun331111113
WSep 10 · 22:55A. Staniczek45811112133Z. Nocun48117811112
LSep 10 · 16:55A. Staniczek239680Z. Nocun331111113
LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek49881112102Z. Nocun471111310123
LSep 9 · 18:20A. Staniczek31671171Z. Nocun3511112113
LSep 4 · 01:30A. Staniczek3012990Z. Nocun361411113
LSep 3 · 19:30A. Staniczek431287161Z. Nocun50101111183
A. Staniczek10
LSep 24 · 24:35K. Delikatny1.8311911113A. Staniczek1.83811991LSep 23 · 23:45J. Skorupa1.407111415113A. Staniczek2.75114121752WSep 23 · 22:55A. Staniczek3.40111184113A. Kubiak1.3053111192LSep 23 · 21:45A. Staniczek3.25116461M. Lewczuk1.3391111113LSep 23 · 20:05A. Staniczek3.2531250Z. Nocun1.331114113WSep 23 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.009790A. Staniczek1.731111113WSep 23 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.3311571542A. Staniczek3.257111113113LSep 23 · 16:55A. Staniczek3.00121340A. Kubiak1.361415113LSep 23 · 15:50A. Staniczek2.20109100A. Skupinski1.611211123WSep 22 · 02:45M. Machelski1.903890A. Staniczek1.801111113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak1.83510140Z. Nocun1.831112163LSep 23 · 23:20K. Delikatny2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538850WSep 23 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.2011930Z. Nocun1.611311113WSep 23 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.2511810131Z. Nocun1.5781112153WSep 23 · 20:05A. Staniczek3.2531250Z. Nocun1.331114113WSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113WSep 23 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.251061161Z. Nocun1.5712116113WSep 23 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.6348121152Z. Nocun1.441111104113LSep 23 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.10111188113Z. Nocun1.6799111192WSep 21 · 02:35Z. Nocun1.67711148113G. Mucha2.10119121132
Upcoming Matches
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Z. Nocun
Sep 24 · 17:55Z. Nocun—G. Mucha——Sep 24 · 18:45Z. Nocun—M. Baran——Sep 24 · 19:55Z. Nocun—M. Lewczuk——Sep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun—A. Staniczek——Sep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun—D. Molenda——Sep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun—G. Mucha——Sep 25 · 24:45Z. Nocun—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 25 · 01:55Z. Nocun—M. Lewczuk——Sep 25 · 03:05Z. Nocun—A. Staniczek——Sep 25 · 04:20Z. Nocun—M. Baran——
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