TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Adam Staniczek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611311118118115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
611311118118115
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 44–12 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 12 of their 56 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Staniczek beat Nocun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-12 in 56
Nocun
Correct
gap of 32 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1453 vs Staniczek 1251
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Staniczek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Staniczek 40%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +2 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (40%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.74 / Staniczek 1.99
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13184195
Nocun1.74
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 328 of 495
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 173
Up 1–0, closes it85% 239 of 281
Staniczek1.99
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 119 of 474
Down 0–1, comes back11% 34 of 305
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 229
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun87.5%7 of 8
AwayStaniczekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun8Staniczek2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S2Nocun6Staniczek4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun3Staniczek1n = 4Nocun took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunStaniczekN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.931.8+4.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime698 / 1167 vs 365 / 100459.8%36.4%698 / 1167 vs 365 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.533.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.74/Staniczek 1.99
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun259790A. Staniczek331111113
LSep 24 · 02:10Z. Nocun203980A. Staniczek331111113
WSep 23 · 20:05Z. Nocun361114113A. Staniczek2031250
WSep 17 · 01:30Z. Nocun4611911153A. Staniczek418119131
WSep 16 · 19:30Z. Nocun331111113A. Staniczek134540
LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun48117811112A. Staniczek45811112133
WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun331111113A. Staniczek239680
WSep 10 · 02:20Z. Nocun471111310123A. Staniczek49881112102
WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun3511112113A. Staniczek31671171
WSep 4 · 01:30Z. Nocun361411113A. Staniczek3012990
Z. Nocun10
WSep 25 · 01:55Z. Nocun1.4214114113M. Lewczuk2.651281191WSep 25 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.7781181152Z. Nocun1.95119117113LSep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun1.776890G. Mucha1.951111113LSep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun3.32811441D. Molenda1.2911511113LSep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun1.359790A. Staniczek2.901111113WSep 24 · 19:55Z. Nocun1.7551111113M. Lewczuk1.95117871WSep 24 · 18:45M. Baran2.25161151322Z. Nocun1.571881111113WSep 24 · 17:55Z. Nocun1.8211911113G. Mucha1.88411931LSep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek3.401111113Z. Nocun1.303980WSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak1.83510140Z. Nocun1.831112163
A. Staniczek10
WSep 25 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.7461191192A. Staniczek2.00119117113LSep 25 · 01:30A. Staniczek2.7011111231G. Mucha1.4291314113LSep 25 · 24:20A. Staniczek2.00811761M. Baran1.7011911113LSep 24 · 22:40A. Staniczek3.4511770M. Lewczuk1.251311113WSep 24 · 21:05Z. Nocun1.359790A. Staniczek2.901111113LSep 24 · 20:20M. Baran1.57111110113A. Staniczek2.25491231WSep 24 · 19:30A. Staniczek2.601111113G. Mucha1.348770LSep 24 · 18:20A. Staniczek6.705870D. Molenda1.041111113WSep 24 · 02:10A. Staniczek3.401111113Z. Nocun1.303980LSep 24 · 24:35K. Delikatny1.8311911113A. Staniczek1.83811991
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