TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Stepanchuk vs Kostiantyn Hrynenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
6.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611511811––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
1.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 89.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 0–6 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Hrynenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1522 vs Hrynenko 1608
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Hrynenko 60%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 70% vs Hrynenko 50%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -1 · Hrynenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Hrynenko) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 6.50 / Hrynenko 1.10
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Hrynenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13180240
Stepanchuk6.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 38 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Hrynenko1.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 64 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStepanchuk0wins
AwayHrynenko6wins
Hrynenko leads 6–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHrynenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk0Hrynenko6n = 6Hrynenko took 6 of 6
S2Stepanchuk0Hrynenko6n = 6Hrynenko took 6 of 6
S3Stepanchuk1Hrynenko5n = 6Hrynenko took 5 of 6
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away583%
These 6 meetings
MetricStepanchukHrynenkoS − HBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match22.033.8−11.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 615 vs 423 / 90848.3%46.6%297 / 615 vs 423 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoStepanchuk 6.50/Hrynenko 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.9%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 22 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2710980K. Hrynenko341211113
LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk153660K. Hrynenko331111113
LAug 12 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk2889110K. Hrynenko351111133
LJul 29 · 13:25Y. Stepanchuk167270K. Hrynenko331111113
LJul 25 · 02:25Y. Stepanchuk2410680K. Hrynenko341211113
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 24 · 02:25Y. Stepanchuk3.25117771D. Derevynskyi1.3371111113LSep 23 · 23:55Y. Stepanchuk2.7511851112S. Pitsyk1.40611119113WSep 23 · 21:55Y. Stepanchuk1.8391111113H. Kulishov1.83116841LSep 22 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.101211113Y. Stepanchuk6.5010980LSep 22 · 02:35D. Kim1.8012119113Y. Stepanchuk1.911071191WSep 22 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.918630Y. Stepanchuk1.801111113WSep 21 · 23:05S. Khandetskyi2.007860Y. Stepanchuk1.731111113WSep 21 · 21:05H. Kulishov1.739280Y. Stepanchuk2.001111113WSep 18 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.83611421Y. Stepanchuk1.8311611113WSep 18 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111111113D. Kim1.80713491
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 24 · 02:55H. Kulishov2.1051211452K. Hrynenko1.671110411113LSep 23 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.571111113K. Hrynenko2.256790LSep 23 · 21:25S. Khandetskyi2.631191110113K. Hrynenko1.4451161292WSep 22 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.101211113Y. Stepanchuk6.5010980WSep 22 · 01:35H. Kulishov2.107990K. Hrynenko1.671111113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.4411711123D. Kim2.638118101WSep 21 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov3.401112391K. Hrynenko1.3081411113WSep 21 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.531111113S. Khandetskyi2.387640LSep 20 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.617370M. Marchuk2.201111113LSep 20 · 01:35V. Lobas1.441114113K. Hrynenko2.6391280
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