TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Pohonov vs Bohdan Chaikovskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168115111012––
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 62.4%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 25–40 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Oleksandr Pohonov has won 25 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-40 in 65
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 15 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1742 vs Chaikovskyi 1814
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 60% vs Chaikovskyi 40%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 50% vs Chaikovskyi 70%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov -1 · Chaikovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 2.38 / Chaikovskyi 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13173687
Pohonov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 41 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Chaikovskyi1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 94 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 66 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov2wins
AwayChaikovskyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov20%1 of 5
AwayChaikovskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Pohonov5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Pohonov3Chaikovskyi7n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Pohonov2Chaikovskyi6n = 8Chaikovskyi took 6 of 8
S5Pohonov1Chaikovskyi2n = 3Chaikovskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiP − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.8−4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 542 vs 406 / 78251.7%51.9%280 / 542 vs 406 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiPohonov 2.38/Chaikovskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 23 · 02:30O. Pohonov341185101B. Chaikovskyi4061111123
LSep 19 · 23:45O. Pohonov199550B. Chaikovskyi331111113
LSep 17 · 11:35O. Pohonov398118121B. Chaikovskyi4211611143
LSep 16 · 16:05O. Pohonov358611101B. Chaikovskyi4111117123
LSep 13 · 01:43O. Pohonov3611421182B. Chaikovskyi43611114113
WSep 12 · 22:45O. Pohonov44911112113B. Chaikovskyi4311391192
LSep 10 · 08:05O. Pohonov27118531B. Chaikovskyi4291111113
WSep 8 · 21:30O. Pohonov351111133B. Chaikovskyi2999110
LSep 5 · 23:45O. Pohonov46111111492B. Chaikovskyi45551311113
O. Pohonov10
LSep 23 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko1.4411117113O. Pohonov2.63581121WSep 22 · 23:30O. Pohonov1.571111113A. Romanenko2.259930LSep 22 · 22:30V. Zharskiy1.6111614113O. Pohonov2.207111291WSep 22 · 21:00O. Pohonov1.331111113I. Sukovatyi3.258970WSep 20 · 03:15I. Sukovatyi3.003780O. Pohonov1.361111113WSep 20 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.6712118113V. Krokhmal2.101081181LSep 19 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.611111113O. Pohonov2.209550WSep 19 · 21:45A. Romanenko2.387129111O. Pohonov1.53111011133LSep 19 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.25112119113O. Pohonov1.5751161182LSep 17 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.6111611143O. Pohonov2.208118121
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 23 · 01:30A. Romanenko2.259540B. Chaikovskyi1.571111113LSep 23 · 24:00V. Zharskiy1.611211113B. Chaikovskyi2.2010670LSep 22 · 22:00I. Sukovatyi1.83111238113B. Chaikovskyi1.83610111122WSep 22 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko2.1011111382B. Chaikovskyi1.67681111113LSep 20 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.401110651V. Krokhmal2.7551211113WSep 20 · 24:45A. Romanenko2.2512950B. Chaikovskyi1.571411113WSep 19 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.611111113O. Pohonov2.209550WSep 19 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.677260B. Chaikovskyi2.101111113WSep 19 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.83811115113I. Sukovatyi1.8311891192WSep 17 · 11:35B. Chaikovskyi1.6111611143O. Pohonov2.208118121
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