TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155415
Played Sep 19Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
141611611471114
Roman Reznychenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 1-4
Point 85 set 5, 1-4 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 59.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 132–106 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 106 of their 238 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
132-106 in 238
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 26 in 238, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1680 vs Reznychenko 1518
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Cherevko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 60% vs Reznychenko 30%
Cherevko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -1 · Reznychenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cherevko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.67 / Reznychenko 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13155415
Cherevko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 97 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 65 of 76
Reznychenko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 91 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko6wins
AwayReznychenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko66.7%4 of 6
AwayReznychenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko6Reznychenko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Reznychenko6n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko6Reznychenko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S4Cherevko7Reznychenko2n = 9Cherevko took 7 of 9
S5Cherevko1Reznychenko2n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoC − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.1+5.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 731 vs 229 / 70651.7%32.4%378 / 731 vs 229 / 706Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.933.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.67/Reznychenko 2.10
Miss
What we said
59.4%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 23:25R. Cherevko4581113133R. Reznychenko4011711111
WSep 13 · 13:25R. Cherevko46111113113R. Reznychenko34471581
WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko5510121111113R. Reznychenko4912146982
LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko346111071R. Reznychenko4111712113
WSep 5 · 19:55R. Cherevko4011711113R. Reznychenko26511371
WSep 5 · 04:25R. Cherevko341211113R. Reznychenko2310850
LAug 29 · 20:25R. Cherevko4011910101R. Reznychenko4271112123
LAug 29 · 03:25R. Cherevko47117611122R. Reznychenko48911113143
WAug 23 · 15:25R. Cherevko4211911113R. Reznychenko34911951
LAug 22 · 19:55R. Cherevko49109111182R. Reznychenko44121146113
R. Cherevko10
LSep 19 · 04:25R. Cherevko2.7569100A. Tuzhylin1.401111123WSep 19 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.50811121072R. Cherevko1.501171012113LSep 19 · 24:25Y. Masko1.6711113113R. Cherevko2.10941181WSep 18 · 23:25R. Cherevko1.6781113133R. Reznychenko2.1011711111WSep 18 · 22:25S. Hohenko1.801311571R. Cherevko1.9115811113WSep 13 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.631181061R. Cherevko1.4481112113LSep 13 · 18:55Y. Masko1.5712111373R. Cherevko2.251471151LSep 13 · 17:25V. Melnik1.91951111113R. Cherevko1.8011117762WSep 13 · 15:25A. Tuzhylin1.44611121192R. Cherevko2.63117146113WSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 19 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111911123R. Reznychenko6.006119101LSep 19 · 03:55S. Hohenko1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107670WSep 19 · 02:55A. Tuzhylin1.1199111172R. Reznychenko6.00111164113LSep 19 · 01:25E. Pismenniy1.61111112113R. Reznychenko2.20611431LSep 18 · 23:25R. Cherevko1.6781113133R. Reznychenko2.1011711111LSep 18 · 21:25Y. Masko1.3661111113R. Reznychenko3.00117381LSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.00104100V. Melnik1.361211123LSep 13 · 16:25R. Reznychenko6.005780A. Tuzhylin1.111111113LSep 13 · 14:55R. Reznychenko3.25670Y. Masko1.3311112LSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113
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