TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142004
Played Sep 17Finished
Andrii Lushchyk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119711117119
Ivan Fedoryshyn
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Fedoryshyn to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Ivan Fedoryshyn below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Fedoryshyn at 68.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 39–124 Ivan Fedoryshyn Andrii Lushchyk has won 39 of their 163 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Fedoryshyn beat Lushchyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-124 in 163
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
gap of 85 in 163, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1690 vs Fedoryshyn 1855
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 40% vs Fedoryshyn 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 30% vs Fedoryshyn 50%
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk -1 · Fedoryshyn -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Fedoryshyn)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fedoryshyn form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 2.63 / Fedoryshyn 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Fedoryshyn)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142004
Lushchyk2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 38 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Fedoryshyn1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 194 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it97% 120 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it84% 159 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk4wins
AwayFedoryshyn6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFedoryshyn leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchyk100%3 of 3
AwayFedoryshyn85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk3Fedoryshyn7n = 10Fedoryshyn took 7 of 10
S2Lushchyk5Fedoryshyn5n = 10split evenly
S3Lushchyk5Fedoryshyn5n = 10split evenly
S4Lushchyk2Fedoryshyn2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykFedoryshynL − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.333.8−2.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykFedoryshynBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 797 vs 550 / 83545.9%65.9%366 / 797 vs 550 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FedoryshynLushchyk 2.63/Fedoryshyn 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Fedoryshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lushchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 13:00A. Lushchyk229850I. Fedoryshyn331111113
LSep 10 · 15:30A. Lushchyk218760I. Fedoryshyn331111113
LSep 8 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1810440I. Fedoryshyn341211113
LSep 4 · 17:30A. Lushchyk165470I. Fedoryshyn331111113
WSep 4 · 12:30A. Lushchyk4011711113I. Fedoryshyn30911191
WSep 3 · 17:30A. Lushchyk4181111113I. Fedoryshyn31117581
WSep 3 · 12:30A. Lushchyk331111113I. Fedoryshyn257990
LSep 1 · 12:30A. Lushchyk51131111792I. Fedoryshyn51156811113
WAug 27 · 12:30A. Lushchyk341111123I. Fedoryshyn2798100
LAug 25 · 17:30A. Lushchyk371011791I. Fedoryshyn4112711113
A. Lushchyk10
WSep 17 · 17:30A. Lushchyk2.6311511113A. Kasyanov1.44811951LSep 17 · 15:30S. Chuhai2.50991211113A. Lushchyk1.50111110792WSep 17 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.50911119123S. Chuhai2.50117911102LSep 17 · 13:00I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113A. Lushchyk2.639850WSep 17 · 12:30A. Kasyanov1.406590A. Lushchyk2.751111113LSep 10 · 17:29M. Hubenko2.1513163143A. Lushchyk1.62111411121WSep 10 · 16:30A. Lushchyk2.6311611113A. Kasyanov1.44811861LSep 10 · 15:30A. Lushchyk2.638760I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113LSep 10 · 14:00A. Lushchyk3.504780R. Ivanov1.281111113LSep 10 · 13:00A. Lushchyk1.5384111132M. Hubenko2.38111189113
I. Fedoryshyn10
WSep 17 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.63611951I. Fedoryshyn1.4411311113LSep 17 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.101111173I. Fedoryshyn1.6757150LSep 17 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn1.73116881A. Kasyanov2.0031111113WSep 17 · 13:00I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113A. Lushchyk2.639850LSep 17 · 12:00I. Fedoryshyn1.53117791S. Chuhai2.3881111113WSep 15 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn2.1016117113M. Baday1.671461181WSep 15 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.401111113S. Chuhai2.754980LSep 15 · 15:30A. Kasyanov2.20101112113I. Fedoryshyn1.611291041WSep 15 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.6711911113A. Kasyanov2.10811991WSep 10 · 15:30A. Lushchyk2.638760I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113
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