TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana Quals
WTT Star Contender Astana QualsMatch #13141774
Played Sep 17Finished
Yeongmin MA
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–3Last 8Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1146111012711––
Alvaro Robles
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:27 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeAlvaro Robles to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYeongmin MA above · Alvaro Robles below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Alvaro Robles at 54.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yeongmin MA 0–1 Alvaro Robles Yeongmin MA has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:27What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Robles
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
MA 40% vs Robles 60%
Robles
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
MA 63% vs Robles 60%
—
Too close
3pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
MA -1 · Robles -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Robles) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Robles form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMA 4.33 / Robles 1.20
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Robles)-0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana Quals · #13141774
MA4.33
63%won 5 of 8 · last 10
oldest → newest
57%takes the first set · 4 of 7
Robles1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMA0wins
AwayRobles1wins
Robles leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMARoblesM − RBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.038.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMARoblesBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 7 vs 6 / 1057.1%60%4 / 7 vs 6 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RoblesMA 4.33/Robles 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Robles · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Robles won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 17 · 07:10Y. MA341161071A. Robles3841112113
Y. MA7
LSep 16 · 12:35I. Gunduz1.7311115163Y. MA2.009911141WSep 15 · 13:10Y. MA3.001311113D. Ivonin1.3611740LSep 10 · 02:00D. Kang1.1713118113Y. MA4.501121171LAug 6 · 05:55B. Haug1.4491111113Y. MA2.63119591WAug 5 · 11:20Y. MA—131113143O. Kveton—15811121WAug 5 · 03:35Y. MA—12511113S. Sivam—1011461WAug 4 · 12:20Y. MA—1111113Z. Cui—4890
A. Robles10
LSep 11 · 10:00A. Robles2.636510K. Karlsson1.441111113WSep 10 · 15:50A. Robles1.401110611113F. Meng2.7581211792LSep 5 · 06:45S. Togami1.14111014113A. Robles5.003121291WSep 4 · 06:10V. Picard2.50981171A. Robles1.5011116113WSep 3 · 05:00A. Naranjo6.5081111632A. Robles1.10118911113LAug 10 · 17:45A. Robles1.7161291142T. Pucar2.001110118113LAug 10 · 15:45A. Robles2.0061291142T. Pucar1.731110118113WAug 9 · 19:40C. Kao1.50111071192A. Robles2.40712117113WAug 9 · 19:05N. Artemenko1.4996111142A. Robles2.33111195113WAug 9 · 17:20C. Kao1.28111071192A. Robles3.50712117113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Robles
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