TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Astana Quals
WTT Star Contender Astana QualsMatch #13135017
Played Sep 15Finished
Yeongmin MA
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–2Last 6Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117114––––
Denis Ivonin
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeDenis Ivonin to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYeongmin MA above · Denis Ivonin below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 57 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denis Ivonin at 56.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Yeongmin MA 1–0 Denis Ivonin Denis Ivonin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Ivonin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
MA 60% vs Ivonin 80%
Ivonin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
MA 67% vs Ivonin 80%
—
Too close
13pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
MA +1 · Ivonin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ivonin) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- MA form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMA 3.00 / Ivonin 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Ivonin)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Astana Quals · #13135017
MA3.00
67%won 4 of 6 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 3 of 5
Ivonin1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMA1wins
AwayIvonin0wins
MA leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMAIvoninM − IBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.022.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMAIvoninBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 5 vs 8 / 1060%80%3 / 5 vs 8 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvoninMA 3.00/Ivonin 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Ivonin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
MA won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 15 · 13:10Y. MA351311113D. Ivonin2211740
Y. MA7
LSep 17 · 07:10Y. MA4.331161071A. Robles1.2041112113LSep 16 · 12:35I. Gunduz1.7311115163Y. MA2.009911141LSep 10 · 02:00D. Kang1.1713118113Y. MA4.501121171LAug 6 · 05:55B. Haug1.4491111113Y. MA2.63119591WAug 5 · 11:20Y. MA—131113143O. Kveton—15811121WAug 5 · 03:35Y. MA—12511113S. Sivam—1011461WAug 4 · 12:20Y. MA—1111113Z. Cui—4890
D. Ivonin10
LSep 5 · 06:00D. Ivonin2.6312490K. Hamada1.441411113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Shah1.228660D. Ivonin4.001111113WSep 3 · 06:45R. Walther1.2893121162D. Ivonin3.501111108113WSep 2 · 12:45S. Iskandarov5.501251351D. Ivonin1.13101115113WSep 2 · 05:00T. Jiyenbayev—10250D. Ivonin—1211113LJul 27 · 14:35F. Bourrassaud1.4111711113D. Ivonin2.60711791WJul 27 · 08:55D. Ivonin1.671111113B. Kim2.106890WJul 26 · 07:55S. Gulomiddinov10.504370D. Ivonin1.021111113WJul 25 · 13:20D. Ivonin—151112113S. Zhubanov—1741071WJul 25 · 08:00D. Ivonin—1111113R. Dutta—2750
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