TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137215
Played Sep 15Finished
Piotr Kedzierski
Home
2.49
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119811117911
Kamil Kos
Away
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
611119811117911
H2H Piotr Kedzierski 4–5 Kamil Kos Piotr Kedzierski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kedzierski beat Kos 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kedzierski 1339 vs Kos 1411
Kos
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kedzierski 80% vs Kos 60%
Kedzierski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kedzierski 60% vs Kos 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kedzierski +2 · Kos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kedzierski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKedzierski 2.49 / Kos 1.45
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kos)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13137215
Kedzierski2.49
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 33 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Kos1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 48 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it64% 42 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKedzierski4wins
AwayKos5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKos leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKedzierskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKos71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kedzierski2Kos7n = 9Kos took 7 of 9
S2Kedzierski4Kos5n = 9Kos took 5 of 9
S3Kedzierski5Kos4n = 9Kedzierski took 5 of 9
S4Kedzierski2Kos5n = 7Kos took 5 of 7
S5Kedzierski3Kos1n = 4Kedzierski took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKedzierskiKosKedzierski − KosBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match38.342.2−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKedzierskiKosBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 448 vs 153 / 30938.6%49.5%173 / 448 vs 153 / 309Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKedzierski 2.49/Kos 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 15 · 19:00P. Kedzierski531210137113K. Kos511012111172
WSep 9 · 18:30P. Kedzierski51911119113K. Kos4111681152
LSep 8 · 20:00P. Kedzierski36911881K. Kos4211911113
WAug 22 · 08:05P. Kedzierski45511117113K. Kos4711891182
LAug 18 · 14:30P. Kedzierski31571181K. Kos4211119113
WJul 21 · 18:00P. Kedzierski4011611123K. Kos377119101
LJul 7 · 16:30P. Kedzierski50911101282K. Kos531191210113
LJun 23 · 17:00P. Kedzierski2241080K. Kos341112113
LJun 10 · 16:00P. Kedzierski174940K. Kos331111113
P. Kedzierski10
WSep 15 · 21:00P. Kedzierski1.661161111113F. Baranski2.0513118982WSep 15 · 19:00K. Kos1.361012111172P. Kedzierski2.801210137113LSep 15 · 17:00K. Patryk1.3311116113P. Kedzierski2.95851141WSep 15 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz1.2591113682P. Kedzierski3.601181111113WSep 15 · 15:30P. Kedzierski2.0511611113J. Komorowicz1.70211691WSep 9 · 18:30K. Kos1.3611681152P. Kedzierski2.75911119113LSep 9 · 17:00J. Komorowicz1.66118117113P. Kedzierski2.0591191182LSep 9 · 16:00M. Szostak1.49111679113P. Kedzierski2.34614111142LSep 9 · 15:30P. Kedzierski2.755420K. Patryk1.361111113WSep 8 · 22:00P. Kedzierski2.651114113J. Caban1.4251280
K. Kos10
WSep 15 · 20:00K. Patryk1.7612118772K. Kos1.951061111113LSep 15 · 19:00K. Kos1.361012111172P. Kedzierski2.801210137113LSep 15 · 18:00K. Kos1.449816151J. Komorowicz2.50111114173WSep 15 · 16:30K. Kos2.0081111113W. Arkadiusz1.71114881WSep 15 · 14:30K. Kos1.38111112113F. Baranski2.75681461LSep 14 · 19:30L. Buklat—1111113K. Kos—8380WSep 14 · 19:00L. Buklat1.667520K. Kos2.051111113LSep 14 · 18:00K. Kos1.99911711122W. Arkadiusz1.70118114143LSep 14 · 17:00J. Caban2.35111186113K. Kos1.5397111192LSep 9 · 18:30K. Kos1.3611681152P. Kedzierski2.75911119113
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