TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134812
Played Sep 16Finished
Piotr Przewlocki
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113511––––
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Przewlocki above · Rafal Gajda below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 62 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 55.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Przewlocki 6–5 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Gajda beat Przewlocki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:28What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Przewlocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przewlocki 1394 vs Gajda 1339
Przewlocki
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przewlocki 60% vs Gajda 40%
Przewlocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przewlocki 40% vs Gajda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przewlocki -2 · Gajda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Przewlocki) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzewlocki 1.80 / Gajda 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Przewlocki)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13134812
Przewlocki1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 81 of 108
Gajda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 127 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back28% 45 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzewlocki6wins
AwayGajda4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPrzewlocki leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzewlocki66.7%2 of 3
AwayGajda42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przewlocki3Gajda7n = 10Gajda took 7 of 10
S2Przewlocki8Gajda2n = 10Przewlocki took 8 of 10
S3Przewlocki8Gajda2n = 10Przewlocki took 8 of 10
S4Przewlocki4Gajda4n = 8split evenly
S5Przewlocki2Gajda3n = 5Gajda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzewlockiGajdaP − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.5+0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzewlockiGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime524 / 1095 vs 422 / 82047.9%51.5%524 / 1095 vs 422 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzewlockiPrzewlocki 1.80/Gajda 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Przewlocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 07:45P. Przewlocki46511111182R. Gajda51118138113
WSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki361114113R. Gajda2771280
LSep 9 · 04:10P. Przewlocki4491111672R. Gajda48118711113
LAug 18 · 09:50P. Przewlocki4111661172R. Gajda48611119113
WAug 18 · 05:40P. Przewlocki56812187113R. Gajda571110161192
LAug 4 · 12:40P. Przewlocki377121171R. Gajda4411148113
WAug 4 · 06:30P. Przewlocki4371114113R. Gajda411191291
WJun 30 · 15:05P. Przewlocki3961111113R. Gajda33117691
WJun 30 · 09:05P. Przewlocki52811119133R. Gajda50118911112
WJun 25 · 13:55P. Przewlocki351111133R. Gajda2678110
P. Przewlocki10
WSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181WSep 16 · 13:05P. Przewlocki1.28891114113I. Szymanski3.50111141292WSep 16 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.9111411113K. Adamus1.80911661LSep 16 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.75771171P. Gumulinski1.4011118113LSep 16 · 07:45R. Gajda1.73118138113P. Przewlocki2.00511111182WSep 16 · 06:55I. Szymanski3.50711751P. Przewlocki1.2811811113WSep 16 · 06:05P. Przewlocki1.831116113W. Urban1.8381480WSep 16 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.251111113P. Gumulinski1.579490LSep 16 · 03:50K. Adamus1.671111113P. Przewlocki2.108680LSep 15 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.009660K. Slawinski1.731111113
R. Gajda10
WSep 16 · 13:55R. Gajda1.20111111113I. Szymanski4.33461351WSep 16 · 12:40R. Gajda1.831191112113K. Adamus1.83131191092LSep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.0011880P. Gumulinski1.731311113LSep 16 · 09:25R. Gajda1.831013891W. Urban1.83121111113WSep 16 · 07:45R. Gajda1.73118138113P. Przewlocki2.00511111182LSep 16 · 06:30R. Gajda1.8310880K. Adamus1.831211113LSep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.20611841P. Gumulinski1.6111911113WSep 16 · 04:10I. Szymanski3.755870R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 16 · 03:25R. Gajda1.918111011113W. Urban1.8011412772LSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122
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