TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13134609
Played Sep 15Finished
Yu-Lun Su
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161210511911411
Irvin Bertrand
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeIrvin Bertrand to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYu-Lun Su above · Irvin Bertrand below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Irvin Bertrand at 54.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yu-Lun Su 1–0 Irvin Bertrand Irvin Bertrand has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bertrand
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Su 2052 vs Bertrand 2267
Bertrand
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Su 80% vs Bertrand 100%
Bertrand
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Su 70% vs Bertrand 90%
Bertrand
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Su +2 · Bertrand +5
Bertrand
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bertrand) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertrand form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSu 1.91 / Bertrand 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bertrand)+2.5pp
Challenger Series TT · #13134609
Su1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Bertrand1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite96% won 67 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it100% 53 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSu1wins
AwayBertrand0wins
Su leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSuBertrandS − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.022.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSuBertrandBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 8 vs 102 / 10787.5%95.3%7 / 8 vs 102 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.92.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BertrandSu 1.91/Bertrand 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bertrand · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bertrand won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 14 · 10:00Y. Su331111113I. Bertrand229760
Y. Su10
WSep 15 · 09:22Y. Su1.67101112123E. Mendes2.1012610101WSep 15 · 07:00E. Mendes2.75512961Y. Su1.40111011113LSep 14 · 17:30J. Loffler—137117113Y. Su—111141182WSep 14 · 14:30S. Happek7.00126361Y. Su1.08101111113WSep 14 · 13:00T. Saltzer—66111142Y. Su—111147113WSep 14 · 11:00S. Almeida—10490Y. Su—1211113WSep 14 · 10:00I. Bertrand1.409760Y. Su2.751111113WSep 14 · 06:30J. Lama—8370Y. Su—1111113LMar 30 · 18:20Y. Lin1.8391211113Y. Su1.831110671LMar 26 · 12:25Y. Su2.7514771142A. Kenzhigulov1.401211114103
I. Bertrand10
WSep 15 · 09:45J. Loffler2.3081150I. Bertrand1.521113113WSep 15 · 06:30S. Almeida2.256690I. Bertrand1.571111113WSep 14 · 16:30S. Happek15.006670I. Bertrand1.011111113WSep 14 · 15:00J. Lama11.0010640I. Bertrand1.021211113WSep 14 · 13:30I. Bertrand1.141011118113E. Mendes5.0012551182WSep 14 · 11:30I. Bertrand1.1881111113T. Saltzer4.15113271LSep 14 · 10:00I. Bertrand1.409760Y. Su2.751111113WSep 14 · 08:00J. Loffler2.5511126952I. Bertrand1.428101111113WJul 17 · 10:59I. Bertrand1.1411116113M. Danzer5.00151171WJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340
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