TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women
WTT Europe Smash Sweden WomenMatch #12395469
Played Aug 10Finished
Giorgia Piccolin
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1513114811111117
Charlotte Lutz
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeCharlotte Lutz to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingGiorgia Piccolin above · Charlotte Lutz below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Charlotte Lutz at 57.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Giorgia Piccolin 1–0 Charlotte Lutz Charlotte Lutz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lutz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Piccolin 80% vs Lutz 20%
Piccolin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Piccolin 60% vs Lutz 40%
Piccolin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Piccolin +3 · Lutz -1
Piccolin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lutz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lutz form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPiccolin 2.20 / Lutz 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lutz)+0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women · #12395469
Piccolin2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Lutz1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePiccolin1wins
AwayLutz0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPiccolin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPiccolinLutzP − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.046.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPiccolinLutzBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 4 / 1060%40%6 / 10 vs 4 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LutzPiccolin 2.20/Lutz 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Lutz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Piccolin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 10 · 17:45G. Piccolin—151181113C. Lutz—134111172
G. Piccolin10
LAug 13 · 17:10Y. Shin1.031111113G. Piccolin10.009840WAug 9 · 17:55S. Moyland1.4411113482G. Piccolin2.63621111113WAug 9 · 12:40M. Alhodaby3.0011135652G. Piccolin1.368111111113WAug 8 · 17:40G. Piccolin1.5771111113L. Ser2.25119871LJun 28 · 01:05Y. Ghorpade1.5091111113G. Piccolin2.50114391WJun 27 · 02:50S. Mukherjee1.5555111142G. Piccolin2.20111179113LMay 29 · 09:10M. Yovkova6.50111178113G. Piccolin1.1089111162LMay 23 · 10:10L. Massart4.50118115113G. Piccolin1.1781151192WMay 22 · 08:00V. Strassburger3.50112117102G. Piccolin1.28511711123LMay 18 · 11:45G. Piccolin1.5746100T. Ho2.251111123
C. Lutz10
LJul 24 · 16:55C. Lutz7.506111451H. Sato1.07111312113WJul 23 · 14:35B. Kanashiro6.009740C. Lutz1.111111113LJun 28 · 20:10C. Lutz6.5011860Y. Shin1.101311113LJun 18 · 04:00C. Lutz3.406570S. Aoki1.301111113LJun 4 · 08:00C. Lutz3.40117361Y. Yeh1.3071111113LMay 23 · 13:28M. Xiao2.101111113C. Lutz1.676660LMay 8 · 17:00C. Lutz2.00671161A. Dragoman1.7311116113WMay 6 · 20:10C. Lutz1.111111113D. Vivarelli6.005870WMay 5 · 17:30C. Lutz1.181111113M. Wu4.154750WMay 3 · 12:55C. Lutz1.201111113T. Yu4.335830
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