Grzegorz Marud vs Wojciech Urban 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna

Played Oct 12Finished

Grzegorz Marud

Home

1.82

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

8111311118611711

Wojciech Urban

Away

1.88

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Grzegorz Marud to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

97 points played in total.

Set by set

8111311118611711

H2H Grzegorz Marud 61–57 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 57 of their 118 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Marud

Marud 1.82/Urban 1.88

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Marud · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Urban won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 23:29

54.0%Our read54.9%to break even at 1.82

short by 0.9pp

54.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.82 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.82 (51%)

Marud

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

61-57 in 118

Marud

Wrong

gap of 4 in 118, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marud 1400 vs Urban 1308

Marud

Wrong

both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marud 40% vs Urban 60%

Urban

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marud 60% vs Urban 30%

Marud

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Marud +1 · Urban +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marud) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Marud: form 40%, the price implies 55%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarud 1.82 / Urban 1.88

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Marud)-0.9pp

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Urban beat Marud 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarud3wins

AwayUrban7wins

3 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarud75%3 of 4

AwayUrban100%6 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marud4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10

S2Marud4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10

S3Marud4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10

S4Marud1Urban3n = 4Urban took 3 of 4

S5Marud1Urban2n = 3Urban took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarudUrbanM − UBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.134.8−3.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarudUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime661 / 1376 vs 833 / 173848%47.9%661 / 1376 vs 833 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match

TT Elite Series · #13287494

Marud1.82

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite53% won 122 of 229

Up 2–0, closes it86% 74 of 86

Up 1–0, closes it70% 98 of 140

Urban1.88

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog41% won 210 of 512

Down 0–1, comes back19% 53 of 278

Down 0–2, comes back7% 12 of 169

Grzegorz Marud vs Wojciech Urban 2-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Grzegorz Marud vs Wojciech Urban 2-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.