Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Szotkowski

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

6111315911––––

Ondrej Paril

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jan Szotkowski to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Ondrej Paril below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 13-15

Set 3 · 9-11

Point 65 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%

65 points played in total.

H2H Jan Szotkowski 45–41 Ondrej Paril Ondrej Paril has won 41 of their 86 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Szotkowski

Szotkowski 1.73/Paril 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Szotkowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Paril won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:21

54.0%Our read57.8%to break even at 1.73

short by 3.8pp

57.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.73 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Szotkowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

45-41 in 86

Szotkowski

Wrong

gap of 4 in 86, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Szotkowski 1890 vs Paril 1853

Szotkowski

Wrong

both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Szotkowski 60% vs Paril 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Szotkowski 60% vs Paril 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Szotkowski +1 · Paril +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSzotkowski 1.73 / Paril 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Szotkowski)-3.8pp (anti-value)

They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match

Szotkowski beat Paril 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSzotkowski6wins

AwayParil4wins

6 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSzotkowski80%4 of 5

AwayParil60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Szotkowski5Paril5n = 10split evenly

S2Szotkowski6Paril4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10

S3Szotkowski6Paril4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10

S4Szotkowski4Paril3n = 7Szotkowski took 4 of 7

S5Szotkowski3Paril3n = 6split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSzotkowskiParilS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.240.0+1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSzotkowskiParilBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 826 vs 520 / 100552.9%51.7%437 / 826 vs 520 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.9per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13285768

Szotkowski1.73

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite54% won 144 of 265

Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81

Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150

Paril2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog47% won 117 of 250

Down 0–1, comes back24% 34 of 140

Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 78

Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.