Tadeas Zika vs Jan Szotkowski 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod

Played Oct 12Finished

Tadeas Zika

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 5

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1194111210711117

Jan Szotkowski

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Jan Szotkowski to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTadeas Zika above · Jan Szotkowski below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 7-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 93 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 55.8%

93 points played in total.

H2H Tadeas Zika 103–122 Jan Szotkowski Tadeas Zika has won 103 of their 225 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Szotkowski

Zika 2.10/Szotkowski 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.8%

Szotkowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Zika won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:55

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Szotkowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

103-122 in 225

Szotkowski

Wrong

gap of 19 in 225, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zika 1855 vs Szotkowski 1881

Szotkowski

Wrong

both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zika 100% vs Szotkowski 40%

Zika

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zika 60% vs Szotkowski 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Zika +5 · Szotkowski +1

Zika

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Szotkowski: form 40%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZika 2.10 / Szotkowski 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Szotkowski)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Zika beat Szotkowski 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZika3wins

AwaySzotkowski7wins

2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZika75%3 of 4

AwaySzotkowski100%6 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zika4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10

S2Zika3Szotkowski7n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10

S3Zika4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10

S4Zika1Szotkowski7n = 8Szotkowski took 7 of 8

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricZikaSzotkowskiZ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.940.7−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZikaSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime818 / 1767 vs 435 / 82346.3%52.9%818 / 1767 vs 435 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.3per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280364

Zika2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog46% won 299 of 647

Down 0–1, comes back26% 85 of 322

Down 0–2, comes back7% 12 of 171

Szotkowski1.67

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite54% won 144 of 265

Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81

Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150

Tadeas Zika vs Jan Szotkowski 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tadeas Zika vs Jan Szotkowski 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.