Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Szotkowski

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

51111310121513911

Ondrej Paril

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jan Szotkowski to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Ondrej Paril below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 11-3

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 15-13

Set 5 · 9-11

Point 100 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%

100 points played in total.

H2H Jan Szotkowski 44–40 Ondrej Paril Ondrej Paril has won 40 of their 84 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Szotkowski

Szotkowski 1.73/Paril 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Szotkowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Paril won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:57

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Szotkowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

44-40 in 84

Szotkowski

Wrong

gap of 4 in 84, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Szotkowski 1887 vs Paril 1844

Szotkowski

Wrong

both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Szotkowski 60% vs Paril 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Szotkowski 70% vs Paril 30%

Szotkowski

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Szotkowski -1 · Paril -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSzotkowski 1.727 / Paril 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Szotkowski)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSzotkowski5wins

AwayParil5wins

6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSzotkowski57.1%4 of 7

AwayParil66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Szotkowski7Paril3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10

S2Szotkowski6Paril4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10

S3Szotkowski5Paril5n = 10split evenly

S4Szotkowski3Paril4n = 7Paril took 4 of 7

S5Szotkowski2Paril4n = 6Paril took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricSzotkowskiParilS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.0+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSzotkowskiParilBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 844 vs 516 / 99852.5%51.7%443 / 844 vs 516 / 998Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.9per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13278714

Szotkowski1.73

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite54% won 144 of 265

Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81

Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150

Paril2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog47% won 117 of 250

Down 0–1, comes back24% 34 of 140

Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 78

Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.