Antonin Baros vs Jaroslav Baca 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 20 - Czech 9 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Antonin Baros

Home

1.80

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 4

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

4117111210811––

Jaroslav Baca

Away

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Antonin Baros to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jaroslav Baca below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 8-11

Point 74 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Antonin Baros at 54.0%

74 points played in total.

H2H Antonin Baros 1–1 Jaroslav Baca Dead even across their 2 meetings.

Last 2 · 1–1Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Baros

Baros 1.80/Baca 1.91

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Baros · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Baca won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:56

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Baros

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-1 in 2

—

Too close

2 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Baros 1576 vs Baca 1581

Baca

Correct

both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Baros 20% vs Baca 40%

Baca

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Baros 20% vs Baca 40%

Baca

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Baros -4 · Baca -1

Baros

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Baros) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Baca: form 40%, the price implies 52%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBaros 1.80 / Baca 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Baros)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 2 meetings

HomeBaros1wins

AwayBaca1wins

1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home0

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home1

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away1

These 2 meetings

MetricBarosBacaBaros − BacaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.539.5−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBarosBacaBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 421 vs 2 / 546.1%40%194 / 421 vs 2 / 5Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.632.4per match

TT Cup · #13283672

Baros1.80

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite55% won 23 of 42

Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19

Baca1.91

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Antonin Baros vs Jaroslav Baca 1-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Antonin Baros vs Jaroslav Baca 1-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.