TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Baca vs David Sarganek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Jaroslav Baca
Home
2.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched: 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Baca above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 · our read held David Sarganek at 61.5%
50 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4161.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 5.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Baca 40% vs Sarganek 20%
Baca
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baca 40% vs Sarganek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baca -3 · Sarganek -2
Baca
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaca 2.40 / Sarganek 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 62%
Edge (Sarganek)-5.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13255485
Baca2.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sarganek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 65 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBacaSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 266 / 51240%52%4 / 10 vs 266 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
SarganekBaca 2.40/Sarganek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sarganek won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Baca10
WOct 6 · 19:45J. Baca2.6051111113R. Kowal1.44116861LOct 6 · 17:45J. Baca1.8391181172A. Baros1.83119118113LFeb 5 · 03:20P. Wawrosz1.8391111113J. Baca1.83119591LFeb 5 · 02:35J. Baca1.7347120M. Kowalczyk2.001111143WFeb 5 · 01:20A. Rusnak1.91671131J. Baca1.8011119113WFeb 5 · 00:55P. Wawrosz1.801012991J. Baca1.91121011113LFeb 5 · 00:05J. Baca1.67461551M. Kowalczyk2.10111113113WFeb 4 · 22:55A. Rusnak1.918830J. Baca1.801111113LFeb 4 · 22:10J. Baca2.20511111042P. Wawrosz1.61112512113LFeb 4 · 20:30S. Wnek2.38781211113J. Baca1.53111110482
D. Sarganek10
LOct 6 · 18:15R. Kowal1.91841112113D. Sarganek1.80111141052LSep 29 · 16:45D. Sarganek—2990P. Vicherek—1111113WSep 29 · 16:15D. Sarganek1.801111113P. Vicherek1.916930LSep 29 · 14:45F. Sikora1.7311511113D. Sarganek2.00411991LSep 29 · 14:15R. Kowal2.0011711113D. Sarganek1.73911741WSep 28 · 21:05R. Kowal2.207740D. Sarganek1.611111113WSep 28 · 20:10D. Sarganek1.731111113P. Vicherek2.008870LSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal1.9111413113D. Sarganek1.806111181WSep 28 · 18:10A. Baros2.2511961162D. Sarganek1.57711113113LSep 23 · 21:05R. Kowal1.911211113D. Sarganek1.8010560
Upcoming Matches
J. Baca
Nothing scheduled
D. Sarganek
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