TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sarganek vs Antonin Baros 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 · our read held David Sarganek at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 42–27 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 27 of their 69 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5258.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-27 in 69
Sarganek
Correct
gap of 15 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1661 vs Baros 1595
Sarganek
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Baros 20%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 50% vs Baros 30%
Sarganek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek +1 · Baros -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.615 / Baros 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sarganek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253782
Sarganek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 65 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Baros2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek5wins
AwayBaros5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek50%2 of 4
AwayBaros50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek4Baros6n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S2Sarganek7Baros3n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S3Sarganek6Baros4n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek3Baros4n = 7Baros took 4 of 7
S5Sarganek1Baros2n = 3Baros took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekBarosS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.0+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 514 vs 194 / 41952.1%46.3%268 / 514 vs 194 / 419Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.61/Baros 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 20:15D. Sarganek341111123A. Baros2899100
WSep 28 · 18:10D. Sarganek43711113113A. Baros4311961162
LSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek551771110102A. Baros581511812123
LSep 23 · 17:19D. Sarganek32511791A. Baros4111811113
WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek4071111113A. Baros28118631
LSep 21 · 19:10D. Sarganek3611361152A. Baros43111119113
WSep 19 · 19:40D. Sarganek371511113A. Baros3013980
WSep 15 · 18:15D. Sarganek4281111123A. Baros381198101
LSep 8 · 20:40D. Sarganek367118101A. Baros3711311123
LSep 8 · 18:40D. Sarganek2610880A. Baros341211113
D. Sarganek10
WOct 6 · 21:10R. Kowal1.679660D. Sarganek2.101111113WOct 6 · 18:45J. Baca2.406380D. Sarganek1.501111113LOct 6 · 18:15R. Kowal1.91841112113D. Sarganek1.80111141052LSep 29 · 16:45D. Sarganek—2990P. Vicherek—1111113WSep 29 · 16:15D. Sarganek1.801111113P. Vicherek1.916930LSep 29 · 14:45F. Sikora1.7311511113D. Sarganek2.00411991LSep 29 · 14:15R. Kowal2.0011711113D. Sarganek1.73911741WSep 28 · 21:05R. Kowal2.207740D. Sarganek1.611111113WSep 28 · 20:10D. Sarganek1.731111113P. Vicherek2.008870LSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal1.9111413113D. Sarganek1.806111181
A. Baros10
LOct 6 · 20:40A. Baros1.735750J. Baca2.001111113LOct 6 · 19:15A. Baros1.918111041R. Kowal1.8011812113WOct 6 · 17:45J. Baca1.8391181172A. Baros1.83119118113LOct 2 · 16:45A. Baros2.506580J. Skvrna1.461111113LOct 2 · 15:45F. Sikora1.50141011113A. Baros2.501212391LOct 2 · 15:15J. Rak1.7391111113A. Baros2.00117851WOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862LSep 28 · 20:35A. Baros1.913870P. Vicherek1.801111113LSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 19:10P. Vicherek1.8097111272A. Baros1.911111610113
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