Marek Cizek vs Petr Maly 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Marek Cizek

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 6

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 6

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

117911119711118

Petr Maly

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Marek Cizek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Petr Maly below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 7-11

Set 5 · 11-8

Point 95 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Marek Cizek at 54.0%

95 points played in total.

H2H Marek Cizek 4–4 Petr Maly Dead even across their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 4–4Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Cizek

Cizek 2.00/Maly 1.73

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Cizek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Cizek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:54

54.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00

clears by 4.0pp

50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Maly

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-4 in 8

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Cizek 1515 vs Maly 1471

Cizek

Correct

both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Cizek 100% vs Maly 40%

Cizek

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Cizek 60% vs Maly 40%

Cizek

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Cizek +6 · Maly +1

Cizek

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Maly: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCizek 2.00 / Maly 1.727

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Cizek)+4.0pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeCizek4wins

AwayMaly4wins

4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayMaly66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cizek2Maly6n = 8Maly took 6 of 8

S2Cizek4Maly4n = 8split evenly

S3Cizek6Maly2n = 8Cizek took 6 of 8

S4Cizek4Maly4n = 8split evenly

S5Cizek2Maly2n = 4split evenly

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home225%

3–2Decider, home225%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away225%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 8 meetings

MetricCizekMalyC − MBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match45.243.0+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCizekMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 285 vs 213 / 40946.7%52.1%133 / 285 vs 213 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match

Setka Cup · #13281799

Cizek2.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 6

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog36% won 25 of 70

Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44

Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26

Maly1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite53% won 55 of 104

Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61

Marek Cizek vs Petr Maly 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Marek Cizek vs Petr Maly 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.