TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marek Cizek vs Stepan Kalensky 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012117118711118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:59 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Stepan Kalensky at 60.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 4–6 Stepan Kalensky Marek Cizek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5960.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kalensky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Kalensky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1483 vs Kalensky 1500
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Kalensky 40%
Kalensky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Kalensky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Kalensky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kalensky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.25 / Kalensky 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kalensky)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270720
Cizek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Kalensky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek4wins
AwayKalensky6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKalensky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKalensky75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek2Kalensky8n = 10Kalensky took 8 of 10
S2Cizek3Kalensky7n = 10Kalensky took 7 of 10
S3Cizek8Kalensky2n = 10Cizek took 8 of 10
S4Cizek3Kalensky6n = 9Kalensky took 6 of 9
S5Cizek2Kalensky1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekKalenskyC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.7−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 286 vs 270 / 50346.2%53.7%132 / 286 vs 270 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyCizek 2.25/Kalensky 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 06:00M. Cizek501011117113S. Kalensky4612781182
LSep 22 · 20:29M. Cizek351091151S. Kalensky4112117113
WSep 22 · 19:30M. Cizek4411157113S. Kalensky325131131
LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek188550S. Kalensky331111113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek38113111122S. Kalensky50131178113
LSep 1 · 18:00M. Cizek358511111S. Kalensky4411119133
LAug 7 · 20:59M. Cizek32571191S. Kalensky3911116113
WAug 7 · 19:00M. Cizek4891414113S. Kalensky4411121291
LAug 3 · 18:30M. Cizek34781181S. Kalensky4111118113
WApr 17 · 18:30M. Cizek51119146113S. Kalensky47911121142
M. Cizek10
WOct 10 · 07:00M. Cizek1.571611113L. Hendrych2.2514670WOct 7 · 20:44M. Cizek1.6081111113J. Tichy2.20119861LOct 7 · 19:58T. Bertho2.201112118113M. Cizek1.6181451182LOct 7 · 18:58L. Hendrych3.001111143M. Cizek1.3687120LOct 7 · 17:28J. Tichy2.5012411123M. Cizek1.5010117101LOct 2 · 20:58F. Kubos2.501111113M. Cizek1.509660LOct 2 · 19:30Z. Kuksa1.67111015113M. Cizek2.109121391WOct 2 · 19:00M. Cizek1.5711116113F. Kubos2.25851151WOct 2 · 18:00M. Cizek1.501113113L. Hendrych2.5081180LSep 22 · 20:29M. Cizek2.251091151S. Kalensky1.5712117113
S. Kalensky10
WOct 10 · 06:30R. Merkl1.738660S. Kalensky2.001111113WOct 1 · 20:29O. Karpisek2.50715461S. Kalensky1.50111311113LOct 1 · 19:30V. Toman2.001111163S. Kalensky1.7339140WOct 1 · 19:00S. Kalensky1.5771113123O. Karpisek2.2511911101LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.101181051T. Bertho1.6771112113LSep 29 · 20:28S. Kalensky2.759340J. Gruber1.401111113LSep 29 · 19:30J. Gruber1.531111123S. Kalensky2.3879100LSep 29 · 19:00S. Kalensky2.381175101J. Juppa1.5381111123LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kalensky2.10711111492T. Bertho1.67119916113WSep 22 · 20:29M. Cizek2.251091151S. Kalensky1.5712117113
Upcoming Matches
M. Cizek
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S. Kalensky
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