TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Marek Cizek 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111191012511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:55 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Roman Merkl @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Marek Cizek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Roman Merkl at 62.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 10–10 Marek Cizek Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pick
Sealed 05:55Sent to Pro: Roman Merkl @ 1.50 · Lost
62.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1501 vs Cizek 1483
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Cizek 60%
Cizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Cizek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Cizek +3
Cizek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Merkl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.50 / Cizek 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Merkl)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271001
Merkl1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 35 of 50
Cizek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl5wins
AwayCizek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl80%4 of 5
AwayCizek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Cizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Merkl4Cizek6n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Merkl7Cizek2n = 9Merkl took 7 of 9
S4Merkl2Cizek3n = 5Cizek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklCizekM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.0+1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 557 vs 132 / 28647.2%46.2%263 / 557 vs 132 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.50/Cizek 2.50
Miss
What we said
62.9%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Roman Merkl @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 15 · 19:00R. Merkl341211113M. Cizek2410950
WJul 11 · 19:30R. Merkl4311911123M. Cizek344119101
WJul 5 · 12:28R. Merkl351111133M. Cizek1944110
LJul 5 · 11:30R. Merkl32481191M. Cizek4211119113
WJun 20 · 16:49R. Merkl421214163M. Cizek361012140
LJun 20 · 15:45R. Merkl3911810101M. Cizek4491112123
WApr 6 · 13:45R. Merkl42721111113M. Cizek4511118782
LMar 2 · 20:30R. Merkl4561111892M. Cizek47115911113
LFeb 24 · 22:00R. Merkl238960M. Cizek331111113
R. Merkl10
LOct 10 · 06:30R. Merkl1.738660S. Kalensky2.001111113WOct 10 · 05:30R. Merkl1.6111311113L. Hendrych2.20711571LOct 3 · 12:30V. Herrmann2.10111129113R. Merkl1.6764111152LOct 3 · 11:30T. Hybl1.671311113R. Merkl2.1011670WOct 3 · 11:00R. Merkl1.8011118113V. Herrmann1.91661181LOct 3 · 10:00R. Merkl2.2021111452M. Svitac1.61117611113WOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113
M. Cizek10
WOct 10 · 07:00M. Cizek1.571611113L. Hendrych2.2514670WOct 10 · 06:00M. Cizek2.251011117113S. Kalensky1.5712781182WOct 7 · 20:44M. Cizek1.6081111113J. Tichy2.20119861LOct 7 · 19:58T. Bertho2.201112118113M. Cizek1.6181451182LOct 7 · 18:58L. Hendrych3.001111143M. Cizek1.3687120LOct 7 · 17:28J. Tichy2.5012411123M. Cizek1.5010117101LOct 2 · 20:58F. Kubos2.501111113M. Cizek1.509660LOct 2 · 19:30Z. Kuksa1.67111015113M. Cizek2.109121391WOct 2 · 19:00M. Cizek1.5711116113F. Kubos2.25851151WOct 2 · 18:00M. Cizek1.501113113L. Hendrych2.5081180
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