Jan Marhol vs Adam Dvoracek 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Marhol

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

1151210117––––

Adam Dvoracek

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%

Graded at full time

Jan Marhol to win

56.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJan Marhol above · Adam Dvoracek below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 11-7

Point 56 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jan Marhol at 56.5%

56 points played in total.

H2H Jan Marhol 5–1 Adam Dvoracek Adam Dvoracek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 5–1Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Marhol

Marhol 1.61/Dvoracek 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.5%

Marhol · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Marhol won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:57

56.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 5.4pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Marhol

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-1 in 6

Marhol

Correct

gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marhol 1464 vs Dvoracek 1516

Dvoracek

Wrong

both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marhol 20% vs Dvoracek 80%

Dvoracek

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marhol 50% vs Dvoracek 80%

Dvoracek

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Marhol +1 · Dvoracek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Marhol) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dvoracek: form 80%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarhol 1.615 / Dvoracek 2.20

Signal prob.57% / 44%

Edge (Marhol)-5.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeMarhol5wins

AwayDvoracek1wins

4 of 6 to a deciderMarhol leads 5–1, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarholn = 1, below the 3 needed

AwayDvoracek20%1 of 5

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marhol1Dvoracek5n = 6Dvoracek took 5 of 6

S2Marhol5Dvoracek1n = 6Marhol took 5 of 6

S3Marhol3Dvoracek3n = 6split evenly

S4Marhol5Dvoracek1n = 6Marhol took 5 of 6

S5Marhol2Dvoracek1n = 3Marhol took 2 of 3

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home233%

3–2Decider, home350%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 6 meetings

MetricMarholDvoracekM − DBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match46.845.0+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarholDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 261 vs 257 / 48851%52.7%133 / 261 vs 257 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.3per match

Setka Cup · #13281390

Marhol1.61

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 08)

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite51% won 32 of 63

Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14

Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29

Dvoracek2.20

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog47% won 62 of 131

Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 68

Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33

Jan Marhol vs Adam Dvoracek 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Marhol vs Adam Dvoracek 3-0 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.