Valerii Vlasenko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Valerii Vlasenko

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

911119119116––

Mykyta Smyrnov

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%

Graded at full time

Mykyta Smyrnov to win

54.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-6

Point 77 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.8%

77 points played in total.

H2H Valerii Vlasenko 33–62 Mykyta Smyrnov Valerii Vlasenko has won 33 of their 95 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3SplitHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Smyrnov

Vlasenko 2.10/Smyrnov 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.8%

Smyrnov · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Vlasenko won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:39

54.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 5.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Smyrnov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

33-62 in 95

Smyrnov

Wrong

gap of 29 in 95, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vlasenko 1541 vs Smyrnov 1517

Vlasenko

Correct

both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vlasenko 40% vs Smyrnov 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vlasenko 40% vs Smyrnov 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Vlasenko -3 · Smyrnov -1

Vlasenko

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyrnov: form 40%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVlasenko 2.10 / Smyrnov 1.666

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Smyrnov)-5.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeVlasenko7wins

AwaySmyrnov3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVlasenko100%3 of 3

AwaySmyrnov42.9%3 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vlasenko3Smyrnov7n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10

S2Vlasenko6Smyrnov4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10

S3Vlasenko7Smyrnov3n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10

S4Vlasenko4Smyrnov4n = 8split evenly

S5Vlasenko4Smyrnov1n = 5Vlasenko took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovV − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.940.8+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 928 vs 427 / 88443.4%48.3%403 / 928 vs 427 / 884Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match

Setka Cup · #13281207

Vlasenko2.10

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog42% won 126 of 299

Down 0–1, comes back24% 37 of 154

Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 79

Smyrnov1.67

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite58% won 108 of 186

Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56

Up 1–0, closes it75% 80 of 107

Valerii Vlasenko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Valerii Vlasenko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.