TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Vlasenko vs Ruslan Lazebnyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 62.4%
57 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 3–10 Ruslan Lazebnyi Valerii Vlasenko has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:0662.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lazebnyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Lazebnyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1540 vs Lazebnyi 1588
Lazebnyi
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 40% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Vlasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Vlasenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko -3 · Lazebnyi -2
Vlasenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.375 / Lazebnyi 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lazebnyi)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251148
Vlasenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Lazebnyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it72% 39 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko2wins
AwayLazebnyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko40%2 of 5
AwayLazebnyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Vlasenko3Lazebnyi7n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10
S3Vlasenko4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko3Lazebnyi6n = 9Lazebnyi took 6 of 9
S5Vlasenko1Lazebnyi3n = 4Lazebnyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoLazebnyiV − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.144.0−6.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 940 vs 87 / 17743.9%49.2%413 / 940 vs 87 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiVlasenko 2.38/Lazebnyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko47131013113R. Lazebnyi3911121151
LOct 1 · 20:45V. Vlasenko3911711732R. Lazebnyi47611811113
LSep 26 · 00:00V. Vlasenko217770R. Lazebnyi331111113
LSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko31611681R. Lazebnyi4111811113
LSep 17 · 21:15V. Vlasenko378111171R. Lazebnyi4311813113
WSep 15 · 23:45V. Vlasenko48123119133R. Lazebnyi481011511112
LAug 31 · 22:45V. Vlasenko28641171R. Lazebnyi3811115113
LAug 26 · 00:15V. Vlasenko38112311112R. Lazebnyi53911119133
LAug 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko4591571132R. Lazebnyi551113119113
LAug 18 · 00:15V. Vlasenko371169111R. Lazebnyi4381111133
V. Vlasenko10
LOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113LOct 6 · 00:30A. Shypilov1.91111015113V. Vlasenko1.808121371LOct 5 · 23:30V. Vlasenko2.00101090Y. Shmyndra1.731212113WOct 5 · 22:30M. Smyrnov1.6711114101V. Vlasenko2.1013811123WOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko2.63131013113R. Lazebnyi1.4411121151WOct 4 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.9116911113Y. Shmyndra1.801411491LOct 4 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.4491113123V. Vlasenko2.6311911101WOct 4 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111113O. Mitla1.837790WOct 4 · 07:05V. Plishylo1.287750V. Vlasenko3.501111113WOct 4 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1011117113O. Hura1.67631191
R. Lazebnyi10
LOct 6 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi1.44811961O. Mitla2.6311711113LOct 6 · 03:00R. Lazebnyi1.676780Y. Shmyndra2.101111113LOct 6 · 01:00M. Smyrnov2.38111174113R. Lazebnyi1.5387111172WOct 5 · 23:00A. Shypilov2.638740R. Lazebnyi1.441111113LOct 5 · 22:00R. Lazebnyi1.83101111882O. Hura1.83126311113LOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko2.63131013113R. Lazebnyi1.4411121151LOct 2 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.501113913113R. Lazebnyi1.50611111592WOct 2 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi1.367121211113O. Mitla3.00111014572WOct 1 · 23:45O. Hura1.8311811111R. Lazebnyi1.8391113133LOct 1 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.7512811113R. Lazebnyi1.401011971
Upcoming Matches
V. Vlasenko
R. Lazebnyi
Oct 6 · 23:15R. Lazebnyi1.40A. Shypilov2.75—Oct 7 · 01:15R. Lazebnyi1.50M. Smyrnov2.50—Oct 7 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi2.20N. Kovalchuk1.61—Oct 7 · 20:45R. Lazebnyi1.57M. Smyrnov2.25—Oct 7 · 21:45R. Lazebnyi1.40A. Shypilov2.75—Oct 7 · 23:45R. Lazebnyi1.44O. Mitla2.63—Oct 8 · 01:45R. Lazebnyi2.20N. Kovalchuk1.61—Oct 8 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi1.83O. Hura1.83—
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