TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Smyrnov vs Valerii Vlasenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11871110121171416
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:39 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 107 set 5, 14-16 · our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 57.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 62–33 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 33 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:3957.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
62-33 in 95
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 29 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1545 vs Vlasenko 1566
Vlasenko
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 60% vs Vlasenko 40%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Vlasenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.666 / Vlasenko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Smyrnov)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250654
Smyrnov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 109 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it75% 81 of 108
Vlasenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back23% 36 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov3wins
AwayVlasenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVlasenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov42.9%3 of 7
AwayVlasenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov7Vlasenko3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov3Vlasenko7n = 10Vlasenko took 7 of 10
S4Smyrnov4Vlasenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Smyrnov1Vlasenko4n = 5Vlasenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovVlasenkoS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.841.9−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 875 vs 413 / 93948.5%44%424 / 875 vs 413 / 939Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.67/Vlasenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 22:45M. Smyrnov531171011142V. Vlasenko54811127163
LOct 5 · 22:30M. Smyrnov3611114101V. Vlasenko4413811123
WOct 2 · 01:15M. Smyrnov41115311113V. Vlasenko4381111672
WOct 1 · 01:15M. Smyrnov3913114113V. Vlasenko351151181
WSep 30 · 01:15M. Smyrnov361111143V. Vlasenko2475120
LSep 27 · 08:05M. Smyrnov3711411742V. Vlasenko45511711113
LSep 25 · 20:30M. Smyrnov591113911152V. Vlasenko55715115173
LSep 24 · 20:45M. Smyrnov36911881V. Vlasenko3711411113
LSep 23 · 22:45M. Smyrnov2391220V. Vlasenko361114113
LSep 9 · 22:45M. Smyrnov48111011972V. Vlasenko46912311113
M. Smyrnov10
LOct 7 · 00:15M. Smyrnov1.807680O. Mitla1.911111113LOct 6 · 20:45M. Smyrnov2.38581121N. Kovalchuk1.5311118113WOct 6 · 02:00A. Shypilov2.101011111172M. Smyrnov1.67129135113WOct 6 · 01:00M. Smyrnov2.38111174113R. Lazebnyi1.5387111172WOct 6 · 00:00M. Smyrnov2.201141110183O. Hura1.61211812162LOct 5 · 22:30M. Smyrnov1.6711114101V. Vlasenko2.1013811123LOct 5 · 20:30M. Smyrnov1.917290Y. Shmyndra1.801111113WOct 3 · 19:05M. Smyrnov2.1011611113O. Hura1.67511671LOct 3 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra1.911111123M. Smyrnov1.8099100WOct 3 · 15:05O. Mitla1.9171280M. Smyrnov1.801114113
V. Vlasenko10
WOct 6 · 23:45V. Vlasenko2.251251112113N. Kovalchuk1.57141191052WOct 6 · 21:15V. Vlasenko2.381111113R. Lazebnyi1.539870LOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113LOct 6 · 00:30A. Shypilov1.91111015113V. Vlasenko1.808121371LOct 5 · 23:30V. Vlasenko2.00101090Y. Shmyndra1.731212113WOct 5 · 22:30M. Smyrnov1.6711114101V. Vlasenko2.1013811123WOct 5 · 21:00V. Vlasenko2.63131013113R. Lazebnyi1.4411121151WOct 4 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.9116911113Y. Shmyndra1.801411491LOct 4 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.4491113123V. Vlasenko2.6311911101WOct 4 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111113O. Mitla1.837790
Upcoming Matches
M. Smyrnov
V. Vlasenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.