TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Lamperski vs Arkadiusz Mugowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114811115––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:11 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Lamperski to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118114811115––
H2H Jakub Lamperski 1–0 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1159.6%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
clears by 0.8pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Lamperski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lamperski 1493 vs Mugowski 1346
Lamperski
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lamperski 60% vs Mugowski 40%
Lamperski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lamperski 40% vs Mugowski 20%
Lamperski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lamperski +3 · Mugowski +1
Lamperski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Lamperski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLamperski 1.70 / Mugowski 1.95
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Lamperski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13278198
Lamperski1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite82% won 36 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Mugowski1.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 153 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back26% 59 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back15% 18 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLamperski1wins
AwayMugowski0wins
Lamperski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLamperskiMugowskiL − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.028.0+13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLamperskiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 73 vs 882 / 194365.8%45.4%48 / 73 vs 882 / 1943Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LamperskiLamperski 1.70/Mugowski 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Lamperski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lamperski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 11 · 07:15J. Lamperski4111118113A. Mugowski28841151
J. Lamperski10
WOct 11 · 06:00M. Minda1.956630J. Lamperski1.751111113WOct 11 · 04:50T. Piotrowski2.20511791J. Lamperski1.6111911113WOct 11 · 03:20K. Klocek2.5010060J. Lamperski1.451211113LOct 10 · 13:50J. Lamperski1.8011514592B. Mleczko1.807111211113LOct 10 · 12:35J. Lamperski1.83118991M. Minda1.8351111113LOct 10 · 11:20J. Lamperski1.7796130K. Kostyk1.931111153LOct 10 · 10:05T. Filbrandt1.461111113J. Lamperski2.509860WOct 10 · 09:20J. Lamperski1.7211119113T. Piotrowski2.00391191LOct 9 · 08:35K. Sulkowski1.521411118113J. Lamperski2.3816981192LOct 9 · 07:20J. Lamperski1.461111121072K. Klocek2.55621412113
A. Mugowski10
WOct 11 · 05:15K. Klocek2.001114661A. Mugowski1.7081611113LOct 11 · 04:25M. Minda1.591111113A. Mugowski2.227890LOct 11 · 03:00K. Kostyk1.5581111113A. Mugowski2.30119991LOct 9 · 00:10A. Mugowski2.0055100P. Perzynski1.731111123WOct 8 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.251112113S. Brud1.5781060LOct 8 · 21:50A. Mugowski4.506790K. Staszczyk1.171111113LOct 8 · 21:25A. Mugowski2.204116101R. Stapor1.6111711123LOct 8 · 20:30S. Brud1.4061111113A. Mugowski2.75118481LOct 8 · 19:15A. Mugowski2.2051050P. Perzynski1.611112113LOct 8 · 18:05B. Czerwinski1.251110119113A. Mugowski3.7581271142
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