TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgeniy Pismenniy vs Valeriy Melnik 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171715119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 70 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 62.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 88–147 Valeriy Melnik Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 88 of their 235 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:2262.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
88-147 in 235
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 59 in 235, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1579 vs Melnik 1733
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 153 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Melnik 60%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 50% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy +1 · Melnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.25 / Melnik 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Melnik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13277078
Pismenniy2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 63 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back8% 13 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 98
Melnik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 126 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 94 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy3wins
AwayMelnik7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy50%2 of 4
AwayMelnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Pismenniy5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Pismenniy3Melnik6n = 9Melnik took 6 of 9
S4Pismenniy5Melnik3n = 8Pismenniy took 5 of 8
S5Pismenniy1Melnik4n = 5Melnik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyMelnikP − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.9−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 704 vs 385 / 68529.4%56.2%207 / 704 vs 385 / 685Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikPismenniy 2.25/Melnik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 9 · 21:55E. Pismenniy337111051V. Melnik4211812113
LOct 4 · 15:55E. Pismenniy32131090V. Melnik381512113
LOct 3 · 17:25E. Pismenniy4612671382V. Melnik5410111111113
LOct 2 · 22:25E. Pismenniy45111141182V. Melnik48135118113
WSep 27 · 17:25E. Pismenniy507101111113V. Melnik4311125692
LSep 26 · 13:55E. Pismenniy35981261V. Melnik43111110113
WSep 25 · 23:55E. Pismenniy3711411113V. Melnik28711371
LSep 13 · 15:55E. Pismenniy4611118792V. Melnik41531111113
LSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy49711911112V. Melnik49115119133
E. Pismenniy10
WOct 11 · 17:55E. Pismenniy2.506101113113Y. Masko1.50111261142LOct 11 · 16:25E. Pismenniy6.50116711102A. Tuzhylin1.10611117123WOct 11 · 14:55E. Pismenniy2.5011651143R. Cherevko1.5031111812LOct 11 · 13:25E. Pismenniy2.50111340D. Neborak1.50131583LOct 10 · 19:55E. Pismenniy3.009880R. Cherevko1.361111113WOct 10 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1181191182E. Pismenniy6.00118111113WOct 10 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.3851191173Y. Masko1.53115118112LOct 10 · 15:55V. Melnik1.61841111113E. Pismenniy2.2011119692WOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin1.111111153E. Pismenniy6.0069130
V. Melnik10
LOct 11 · 18:25V. Melnik2.386870A. Tuzhylin1.531111113LOct 11 · 17:25V. Melnik1.4068140D. Neborak2.751111163WOct 11 · 15:55V. Melnik1.7311411113Y. Masko2.00811361WOct 10 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.579111012102V. Melnik2.251181210123WOct 10 · 18:25V. Melnik1.366111111113D. Neborak3.0011132742WOct 10 · 17:25V. Melnik1.61111111113R. Cherevko2.20981361WOct 10 · 15:55V. Melnik1.61841111113E. Pismenniy2.2011119692LOct 10 · 13:55V. Melnik1.5791113972Y. Masko2.251141111113LOct 10 · 03:25R. Cherevko2.2011117123V. Melnik1.615911101WOct 10 · 02:25V. Melnik2.20118611113A. Tuzhylin1.6151111982
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