TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Dmytro Neborak 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111113112117114
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 71.6%
72 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 2–2 Dmytro Neborak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2371.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1734 vs Neborak 1623
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Neborak 20%
Melnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Neborak 30%
Melnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Neborak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.363 / Neborak 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Melnik)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270457
Melnik1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 123 of 196
Up 2–0, closes it99% 67 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it84% 93 of 111
Neborak3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMelnik2wins
AwayNeborak2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik2Neborak2n = 4split evenly
S2Melnik1Neborak3n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
S3Melnik1Neborak3n = 4Neborak took 3 of 4
S4Melnik2Neborak1n = 3Melnik took 2 of 3
S5Melnik2Neborak1n = 3Melnik took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMelnikNeborakM − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.044.8−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 680 vs 309 / 85556.2%36.1%382 / 680 vs 309 / 855Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.36/Neborak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik511081111113D. Neborak4312117672
WSep 6 · 19:25V. Melnik561114109123D. Neborak516121211102
LAug 23 · 19:25V. Melnik2121180D. Neborak351113113
LAug 22 · 18:25V. Melnik44111091132D. Neborak50712119113
V. Melnik10
WOct 10 · 17:25V. Melnik1.61111111113R. Cherevko2.20981361WOct 10 · 15:55V. Melnik1.61841111113E. Pismenniy2.2011119692LOct 10 · 13:55V. Melnik1.5791113972Y. Masko2.251141111113LOct 10 · 03:25R. Cherevko2.2011117123V. Melnik1.615911101WOct 10 · 02:25V. Melnik2.20118611113A. Tuzhylin1.6151111982LOct 10 · 01:25V. Melnik1.57143971Y. Masko2.25121111113WOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik1.401081111113D. Neborak2.7512117672WOct 9 · 21:55V. Melnik1.5711812113E. Pismenniy2.257111051WOct 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.6351131132V. Melnik1.44117117113WOct 4 · 18:25V. Melnik1.30111112113R. Cherevko3.40731441
D. Neborak10
LOct 10 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.131111143D. Neborak5.5068120WOct 10 · 15:25D. Neborak2.75411711113R. Cherevko1.4011511892LOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 03:55D. Neborak2.63211132112Y. Masko1.441181111133LOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko1.5711113123D. Neborak2.254411101WOct 10 · 00:55D. Neborak1.3611611113E. Pismenniy3.00711461LOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik1.401081111113D. Neborak2.7512117672LOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113WOct 7 · 12:50O. Shkurupii1.678111191D. Neborak2.1011713113LOct 7 · 11:20D. Neborak1.911011551O. Ivchuk1.8012611113
Upcoming Matches
V. Melnik
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D. Neborak
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