TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Alexander Tuzhylin vs Dmytro Neborak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161181412––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched: 85.8% is still 85.8%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
85.8%
85.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 62 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 85.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 2–0 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2285.8%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 3.1pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1838 vs Neborak 1630
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 208 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Neborak 40%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Neborak 40%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin -1 · Neborak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Tuzhylin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.125 / Neborak 5.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Tuzhylin)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270522
Tuzhylin1.13
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 184 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it99% 118 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it91% 142 of 156
Neborak5.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTuzhylin2wins
AwayNeborak0wins
Tuzhylin leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTuzhylinNeborakT − NBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match38.025.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 646 vs 309 / 85576.2%36.1%492 / 646 vs 309 / 855Avg sets wonper match2.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.13/Neborak 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.8%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 9 · 22:25A. Tuzhylin331111113D. Neborak104240
WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin4313118113D. Neborak401191191
A. Tuzhylin10
LOct 10 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.4011111191Y. Masko2.7551313113WOct 10 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.5011116133R. Cherevko2.509711111WOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin1.111111153E. Pismenniy6.0069130LOct 10 · 02:25V. Melnik2.20118611113A. Tuzhylin1.6151111982WOct 10 · 00:25R. Cherevko2.63711981A. Tuzhylin1.4411611113LOct 9 · 23:25A. Tuzhylin1.44101191182Y. Masko2.63124116113WOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113LSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850WSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 16:55Y. Masko2.63771181A. Tuzhylin1.4411117113
D. Neborak10
WOct 10 · 15:25D. Neborak2.75411711113R. Cherevko1.4011511892LOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 03:55D. Neborak2.63211132112Y. Masko1.441181111133LOct 10 · 01:55R. Cherevko1.5711113123D. Neborak2.254411101WOct 10 · 00:55D. Neborak1.3611611113E. Pismenniy3.00711461LOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik1.401081111113D. Neborak2.7512117672LOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113WOct 7 · 12:50O. Shkurupii1.678111191D. Neborak2.1011713113LOct 7 · 11:20D. Neborak1.911011551O. Ivchuk1.8012611113WOct 7 · 09:20O. Bondarchuk1.33116881D. Neborak3.2561111113
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