TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Alexander Tuzhylin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811611119118
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:21 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Alexander Tuzhylin below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 58.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 92–127 Alexander Tuzhylin Valeriy Melnik has won 92 of their 219 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2158.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
92-127 in 219
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 35 in 219, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1726 vs Tuzhylin 1830
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Tuzhylin 60%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Tuzhylin 80%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Tuzhylin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Tuzhylin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.20 / Tuzhylin 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Tuzhylin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265932
Melnik2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 28 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Tuzhylin1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 185 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it99% 119 of 120
Up 1–0, closes it91% 143 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik3wins
AwayTuzhylin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik50%2 of 4
AwayTuzhylin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik4Tuzhylin6n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Melnik2Tuzhylin8n = 10Tuzhylin took 8 of 10
S3Melnik3Tuzhylin6n = 9Tuzhylin took 6 of 9
S4Melnik1Tuzhylin4n = 5Tuzhylin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikTuzhylinM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.0−4.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikTuzhylinBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 675 vs 490 / 64256.2%76.3%379 / 675 vs 490 / 642Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinMelnik 2.20/Tuzhylin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 27 · 13:55V. Melnik351111581A. Tuzhylin4161311113
LSep 26 · 19:25V. Melnik2210480A. Tuzhylin341211113
LSep 26 · 03:55V. Melnik368111161A. Tuzhylin4211137113
WSep 13 · 18:25V. Melnik331111113A. Tuzhylin215880
LSep 12 · 01:55V. Melnik4212117121A. Tuzhylin48101311143
WSep 5 · 01:55V. Melnik547131211113A. Tuzhylin46111114732
LAug 29 · 19:25V. Melnik2781180A. Tuzhylin351113113
WAug 28 · 22:25V. Melnik45113155113A. Tuzhylin51811131182
LAug 22 · 01:55V. Melnik208660A. Tuzhylin331111113
V. Melnik10
LOct 10 · 03:25R. Cherevko2.2011117123V. Melnik1.615911101LOct 10 · 01:25V. Melnik1.57143971Y. Masko2.25121111113WOct 9 · 23:55V. Melnik1.401081111113D. Neborak2.7512117672WOct 9 · 21:55V. Melnik1.5711812113E. Pismenniy2.257111051WOct 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.6351131132V. Melnik1.44117117113WOct 4 · 18:25V. Melnik1.30111112113R. Cherevko3.40731441LOct 4 · 17:25V. Melnik1.838680Y. Masko1.831111113WOct 4 · 15:55V. Melnik1.571512113E. Pismenniy2.25131090LOct 4 · 13:55V. Melnik1.40119671R. Reznychenko2.754111183LOct 3 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.63912411113V. Melnik1.44111011772
A. Tuzhylin10
WOct 10 · 00:25R. Cherevko2.63711981A. Tuzhylin1.4411611113LOct 9 · 23:25A. Tuzhylin1.44101191182Y. Masko2.63124116113WOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113LSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850WSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 16:55Y. Masko2.63771181A. Tuzhylin1.4411117113WSep 27 · 14:55R. Reznychenko5.508970A. Tuzhylin1.131111113WSep 27 · 13:55V. Melnik2.201111581A. Tuzhylin1.6161311113WSep 26 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.611211113V. Melnik2.2010480WSep 26 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.4081111113Y. Masko2.75118971
Upcoming Matches
V. Melnik
A. Tuzhylin
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.