TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valeriy Melnik vs Roman Reznychenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11491161178––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-8
Point 67 set 4, 7-8 · our read held Valeriy Melnik at 70.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 154–81 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 81 of their 235 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4870.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
154-81 in 235
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 73 in 235, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1721 vs Reznychenko 1563
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Reznychenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Reznychenko 40%
Melnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Reznychenko +3
Reznychenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.40 / Reznychenko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Melnik)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239866
Melnik1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 123 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it99% 67 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it85% 93 of 109
Reznychenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik6wins
AwayReznychenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%6 of 6
AwayReznychenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik6Reznychenko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S2Melnik7Reznychenko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik6Reznychenko4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Melnik3Reznychenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikReznychenkoM − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.333.8+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 682 vs 234 / 71055.9%33%381 / 682 vs 234 / 710Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.134.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.40/Reznychenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik331111113R. Reznychenko165560
LSep 27 · 19:25V. Melnik419129111R. Reznychenko45111011133
LSep 26 · 18:25V. Melnik3751011111R. Reznychenko4411128133
WSep 26 · 01:55V. Melnik43111110113R. Reznychenko30671251
WSep 13 · 19:25V. Melnik351211123R. Reznychenko24104100
LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik4591161182R. Reznychenko51119119113
WSep 12 · 00:55V. Melnik4011117113R. Reznychenko28571151
WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik341111123R. Reznychenko2064100
LAug 29 · 18:25V. Melnik377614101R. Reznychenko46111112123
V. Melnik10
LOct 3 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.63912411113V. Melnik1.44111011772WOct 3 · 18:25V. Melnik1.83121162Y. Masko1.8310571WOct 3 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5310111111113E. Pismenniy2.3812671382WOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 13:55V. Melnik1.839790R. Cherevko1.831111113WOct 3 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311711113Y. Masko1.83911671WOct 3 · 01:55S. Hohenko1.8371080V. Melnik1.831112113WOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.8311611492V. Melnik1.83711911113WOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182
R. Reznychenko10
WOct 3 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.1011113113E. Pismenniy1.67471181WOct 3 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko1.44126111192R. Reznychenko2.63141164113WOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161LOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202LOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123LOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 22:55S. Hohenko1.4011118842R. Reznychenko2.75741111113LOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111
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