TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Dukhovenko vs Roman Reznychenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214611116114911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 67.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 2–1 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4867.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dukhovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1819 vs Reznychenko 1529
Dukhovenko
Wrong
both rated, 290 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 40% vs Reznychenko 20%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 70% vs Reznychenko 30%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +1 · Reznychenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Dukhovenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.444 / Reznychenko 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Dukhovenko)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13235012
Dukhovenko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 209 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it96% 134 of 139
Up 1–0, closes it89% 166 of 187
Reznychenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 92 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDukhovenko2wins
AwayReznychenko1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko1Reznychenko2n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
S2Dukhovenko2Reznychenko1n = 3Dukhovenko took 2 of 3
S3Dukhovenko3Reznychenko0n = 3Dukhovenko took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoReznychenkoD − RBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.539.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 832 vs 232 / 70863.5%32.8%528 / 832 vs 232 / 708Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.634.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.44/Reznychenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 24 · 17:25O. Dukhovenko47101111782R. Reznychenko45126511113
WJan 14 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko4071111113R. Reznychenko33117871
O. Dukhovenko10
WOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081LOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123LOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WSep 27 · 03:55O. Dukhovenko1.251111113I. Demchenko3.754970LSep 27 · 01:55O. Mishchenko2.2591111113O. Dukhovenko1.57117881WSep 27 · 00:55O. Dukhovenko1.5711138113O. Gavryshko2.253111141WSep 26 · 23:55Y. Kryvorotko1.831116431O. Dukhovenko1.8391811113WSep 26 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko1.4411912143A. Chepurnyi2.6381110121WSep 25 · 19:25A. Chepurnyi2.505750O. Dukhovenko1.501111113WSep 25 · 18:25O. Dukhovenko1.5311147113O. Gavryshko2.381121151
R. Reznychenko10
WOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161LOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202LOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123LOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 22:55S. Hohenko1.4011118842R. Reznychenko2.75741111113LOct 2 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.6711119133R. Reznychenko2.109811111WSep 27 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.25111011133V. Melnik1.339129111LSep 27 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00119871Y. Masko1.3681111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.