TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Shkurupii vs Dmytro Neborak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111171113911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched: 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 59.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 138–61 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 61 of their 199 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4959.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 0.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shkurupii
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
138-61 in 199
Shkurupii
Wrong
gap of 77 in 199, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1782 vs Neborak 1641
Shkurupii
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 80% vs Neborak 40%
Shkurupii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 70% vs Neborak 40%
Shkurupii
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii +1 · Neborak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Shkurupii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.666 / Neborak 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Shkurupii)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13256264
Shkurupii1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 54 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Neborak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 116 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back16% 31 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii7wins
AwayNeborak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShkurupii leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii87.5%7 of 8
AwayNeborakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii8Neborak2n = 10Shkurupii took 8 of 10
S2Shkurupii7Neborak3n = 10Shkurupii took 7 of 10
S3Shkurupii3Neborak5n = 8Neborak took 5 of 8
S4Shkurupii4Neborak0n = 4Shkurupii took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.837.1+3.7per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 705 vs 310 / 85348.9%36.3%345 / 705 vs 310 / 853Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.67/Neborak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 6 · 13:30O. Shkurupii51111116133D. Neborak428518111
WOct 4 · 08:30O. Shkurupii46111410113D. Neborak409121271
WOct 4 · 06:00O. Shkurupii391111173D. Neborak2885150
WOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii371211143D. Neborak30108120
WSep 13 · 08:30O. Shkurupii351113113D. Neborak2891180
LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii45119101142D. Neborak45811123113
LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii25113110D. Neborak391115133
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Shkurupii4812138153D. Neborak45101111131
O. Shkurupii10
WOct 7 · 10:50O. Zhurba1.28178981O. Shkurupii3.50151111113LOct 7 · 08:50O. Belskyi2.1081111113O. Shkurupii1.67114781WOct 7 · 07:50O. Shkurupii2.001111124113O. Ivchuk1.73713101172WOct 7 · 06:50O. Bondarchuk1.57119891O. Shkurupii2.2541111113WOct 6 · 19:00O. Ivchuk1.611769101O. Shkurupii2.20151111123WOct 6 · 17:30O. Shkurupii2.2511911113O. Bondarchuk1.57911991WOct 6 · 15:30O. Belskyi2.1071711101O. Shkurupii1.6711196123WOct 6 · 13:30D. Neborak2.208518111O. Shkurupii1.61111116133LOct 6 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.251481111113O. Shkurupii3.75121171372LOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113
D. Neborak10
LOct 7 · 11:20D. Neborak1.911011551O. Ivchuk1.8012611113WOct 7 · 09:20O. Bondarchuk1.33116881D. Neborak3.2561111113WOct 7 · 07:20O. Belskyi2.25111112662D. Neborak1.57711411113LOct 7 · 06:20O. Zhurba1.2061111123D. Neborak4.331152101LOct 6 · 18:00D. Neborak4.3311770O. Zhurba1.201311113WOct 6 · 16:30D. Neborak1.6111911113O. Belskyi2.20611671WOct 6 · 15:00D. Neborak1.8310111111113O. Ivchuk1.8312138892LOct 6 · 13:30D. Neborak2.208518111O. Shkurupii1.61111116133LOct 6 · 12:00D. Neborak3.25117581O. Bondarchuk1.3381111113LOct 4 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.509380
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.