TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Bondarchuk vs Oleksandr Shkurupii 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114911811911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:44 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Oleksandr Shkurupii below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 62.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 43–34 Oleksandr Shkurupii Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 34 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4462.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bondarchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-34 in 77
Bondarchuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1919 vs Shkurupii 1773
Bondarchuk
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 80% vs Shkurupii 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 70% vs Shkurupii 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +1 · Shkurupii +4
Shkurupii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Bondarchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shkurupii form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.571 / Shkurupii 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Bondarchuk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255551
Bondarchuk1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 84 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it98% 41 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Shkurupii2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 29 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk6wins
AwayShkurupii4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayShkurupii66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk7Shkurupii3n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S2Bondarchuk7Shkurupii3n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S3Bondarchuk5Shkurupii5n = 10split evenly
S4Bondarchuk2Shkurupii3n = 5Shkurupii took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukShkurupiiB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.531.4+6.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukShkurupiiBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 325 vs 343 / 70257.5%48.9%187 / 325 vs 343 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.57/Shkurupii 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 06:50O. Bondarchuk37119891O. Shkurupii3741111113
LOct 6 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk38911991O. Shkurupii4211911113
WOct 4 · 09:30O. Bondarchuk45612511113O. Shkurupii41111011542
WOct 4 · 04:30O. Bondarchuk361113123O. Shkurupii30911100
WOct 3 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Shkurupii155640
LOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk3079140O. Shkurupii381111163
WJul 30 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk341111123O. Shkurupii2477100
WJul 29 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk4211119113O. Shkurupii30821191
WJun 20 · 09:50O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Shkurupii133820
LJun 19 · 19:50O. Bondarchuk47118111342O. Shkurupii44311415113
O. Bondarchuk10
WOct 6 · 18:30O. Belskyi5.0061080O. Bondarchuk1.141112113LOct 6 · 17:30O. Shkurupii2.2511911113O. Bondarchuk1.57911991WOct 6 · 16:00O. Zhurba1.404850O. Bondarchuk2.751111113WOct 6 · 14:00O. Ivchuk4.338870O. Bondarchuk1.201111113WOct 6 · 12:00D. Neborak3.25117581O. Bondarchuk1.3381111113WOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113LOct 4 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.4411126143O. Bondarchuk2.6391011121LOct 4 · 07:30D. Neborak3.25211117113O. Bondarchuk1.3311881102WOct 4 · 06:30O. Bondarchuk1.331211113D. Neborak3.2510830WOct 4 · 05:30O. Bondarchuk2.6311115113O. Zhurba1.44891191
O. Shkurupii10
WOct 6 · 19:00O. Ivchuk1.611769101O. Shkurupii2.20151111123WOct 6 · 17:30O. Shkurupii2.2511911113O. Bondarchuk1.57911991WOct 6 · 15:30O. Belskyi2.1071711101O. Shkurupii1.6711196123WOct 6 · 13:30D. Neborak2.208518111O. Shkurupii1.61111116133LOct 6 · 12:30O. Zhurba1.251481111113O. Shkurupii3.75121171372LOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113WOct 4 · 08:30O. Shkurupii1.61111410113D. Neborak2.209121271WOct 4 · 08:00O. Shkurupii3.50511112113O. Zhurba1.2811681182LOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990WOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173
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