TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Alexander Tuzhylin vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118911111811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched: 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 198–18 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 18 of their 216 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5388.6%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 1.4pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
198-18 in 216
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 180 in 216, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1845 vs Pismenniy 1574
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 271 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Pismenniy 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 60% vs Pismenniy 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Pismenniy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Tuzhylin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.111 / Pismenniy 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270735
Tuzhylin1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 184 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it99% 118 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it91% 142 of 156
Pismenniy6.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back8% 13 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin10wins
AwayPismenniy0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%7 of 7
AwayPismenniy0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin7Pismenniy3n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S2Tuzhylin10Pismenniy0n = 10Tuzhylin took 10 of 10
S3Tuzhylin8Pismenniy1n = 9Tuzhylin took 8 of 9
S4Tuzhylin3Pismenniy0n = 3Tuzhylin took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyT − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.228.3+8.9per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 647 vs 204 / 69876.2%29.2%493 / 647 vs 204 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.11/Pismenniy 6.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin371111153E. Pismenniy2869130
WSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin351113113E. Pismenniy2441190
WSep 26 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin331111113E. Pismenniy199820
WSep 26 · 01:25A. Tuzhylin4051113113E. Pismenniy391181191
WSep 20 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin47511713113E. Pismenniy46116111172
WSep 19 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin331111113E. Pismenniy187650
WSep 18 · 21:55A. Tuzhylin331111113E. Pismenniy173860
WSep 12 · 00:25A. Tuzhylin4391211113E. Pismenniy381110981
WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin341112113E. Pismenniy2681080
A. Tuzhylin10
WOct 10 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.131111143D. Neborak5.5068120LOct 10 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.4011111191Y. Masko2.7551313113WOct 10 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.5011116133R. Cherevko2.509711111WOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin1.111111153E. Pismenniy6.0069130LOct 10 · 02:25V. Melnik2.20118611113A. Tuzhylin1.6151111982WOct 10 · 00:25R. Cherevko2.63711981A. Tuzhylin1.4411611113LOct 9 · 23:25A. Tuzhylin1.44101191182Y. Masko2.63124116113WOct 9 · 22:25D. Neborak4.504240A. Tuzhylin1.171111113LSep 27 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.501111113A. Tuzhylin1.507850WSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190
E. Pismenniy10
WOct 10 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.3851191173Y. Masko1.53115118112LOct 10 · 15:55V. Melnik1.61841111113E. Pismenniy2.2011119692WOct 10 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.001611127123D. Neborak1.361481411112LOct 10 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin1.111111153E. Pismenniy6.0069130LOct 10 · 02:55E. Pismenniy2.7588110Y. Masko1.401111133LOct 10 · 00:55D. Neborak1.3611611113E. Pismenniy3.00711461WOct 9 · 22:55R. Cherevko1.50761261E. Pismenniy2.50111110113LOct 9 · 21:55V. Melnik1.5711812113E. Pismenniy2.257111051WOct 4 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.50149611113Y. Masko1.50121111892LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190
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