TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Oleksandr Riabuha 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114117––––
Oleksandr Riabuha
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
0–4Last 4Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:16 and never touched: 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Riabuha below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 76.6%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 2–0 Oleksandr Riabuha Oleksandr Riabuha has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1676.6%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 5.2pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1155 vs Riabuha 534
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 621 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Riabuha 0%
Ponomarenko
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Riabuha 0%
Ponomarenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +6 · Riabuha -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Riabuha form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.222 / Riabuha 4.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-5.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276354
Ponomarenko1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 89 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it89% 69 of 78
Riabuha4.00
0%won 0 of 4 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 4
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwayRiabuha0wins
Ponomarenko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoRiabuhaP − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.019.0+14.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoRiabuhaBasisWin rate · lifetime315 / 664 vs 0 / 647.4%0%315 / 664 vs 0 / 6Avg sets wonper match1.90.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.322.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.22/Riabuha 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 11 · 06:35O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Riabuha198470
WOct 4 · 11:05O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Riabuha196760
O. Ponomarenko10
LOct 11 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko1.5771111402V. Mykhalchenko2.2511781123WOct 11 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko1.401111113M. Tkalich2.755690WOct 11 · 05:05O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.503940WOct 9 · 10:30P. Ostrovskyi1.50941151O. Ponomarenko2.5011118113WOct 9 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko2.201112113S. Osipov1.6171050WOct 9 · 08:30O. Ponomarenko1.331181110113O. Efimov3.2541171292WOct 9 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko1.20881111113M. Mykhailenko4.3311118742WOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880LOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113WOct 8 · 09:35O. Miklukha1.613460O. Ponomarenko2.201111113
O. Riabuha5
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