TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs Filip Strejc 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111181210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:52 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 65 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 55.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 13–18 Filip Strejc Ondrej Kadavy has won 13 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5255.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-18 in 31
Strejc
Wrong
gap of 5 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1761 vs Strejc 1688
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 40% vs Strejc 60%
Strejc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Strejc 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -1 · Strejc +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kadavy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.727 / Strejc 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Kadavy)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13276195
Kadavy1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 70 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it84% 54 of 64
Strejc2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy7wins
AwayStrejc3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy87.5%7 of 8
AwayStrejcn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy8Strejc2n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S2Kadavy4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Kadavy5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Kadavy3Strejc3n = 6split evenly
S5Kadavy3Strejc0n = 3Kadavy took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyStrejcK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.5+1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 349 vs 213 / 47757.9%44.7%202 / 349 vs 213 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.73/Strejc 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 06:55O. Kadavy361311123F. Strejc29118100
WOct 4 · 10:13O. Kadavy44111111113F. Strejc30613561
WOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy43112711123F. Strejc46911115102
LOct 1 · 18:30O. Kadavy34911951F. Strejc4211911113
LOct 1 · 16:25O. Kadavy341161071F. Strejc4281112113
WSep 27 · 14:17O. Kadavy331111113F. Strejc257990
WSep 27 · 11:25O. Kadavy43115411123F. Strejc46711117102
WSep 15 · 16:25O. Kadavy341112113F. Strejc2681080
LSep 11 · 22:33O. Kadavy2889110F. Strejc351111133
WSep 11 · 20:25O. Kadavy49119117113F. Strejc4471161192
O. Kadavy10
LOct 11 · 08:55O. Kadavy1.91471171V. Benak1.8011118113WOct 11 · 07:55O. Kadavy2.101112113T. Vorisek1.6791040LOct 9 · 17:59O. Kadavy1.9181171182F. Cernota1.80116117113WOct 9 · 16:55O. Kadavy2.00891111113M. Stusek1.7311118512LOct 9 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.83981181F. Cernota1.8311118113WOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571LOct 6 · 21:25M. Cerny3.0011711113O. Kadavy1.36711881WOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113WOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113
F. Strejc10
WOct 11 · 09:25T. Vorisek1.447840F. Strejc2.631111113WOct 11 · 08:25F. Strejc2.10111579113V. Benak1.67713111142WOct 10 · 10:35T. Vorisek1.534880F. Strejc2.381111113WOct 10 · 08:55V. Benak1.7397100F. Strejc2.001111123LOct 10 · 08:25T. Vorisek1.44911111113F. Strejc2.6311981162WOct 10 · 07:25F. Strejc2.001111113D. Jicha1.739690LOct 9 · 21:23D. Jicha1.7311115113F. Strejc2.00351181WOct 9 · 20:20F. Strejc2.2551111133T. Vorisek1.571157111LOct 9 · 19:20F. Strejc2.7511118992J. Zlamal1.40891111113LOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113
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