TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Chovanec vs Petr Osvald 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111210116118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:21 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePetr Osvald to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chovanec above · Petr Osvald below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Petr Osvald at 58.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chovanec 4–1 Petr Osvald Petr Osvald has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2158.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Osvald
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Chovanec
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chovanec 1541 vs Osvald 1625
Osvald
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovanec 80% vs Osvald 60%
Chovanec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovanec 70% vs Osvald 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovanec +4 · Osvald +1
Chovanec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Osvald) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovanec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovanec 2.10 / Osvald 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Osvald)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275094
Chovanec2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 9 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Osvald1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 42 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChovanec4wins
AwayOsvald1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderChovanec leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChovanecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOsvald33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chovanec2Osvald3n = 5Osvald took 3 of 5
S2Chovanec3Osvald2n = 5Chovanec took 3 of 5
S3Chovanec3Osvald2n = 5Chovanec took 3 of 5
S4Chovanec4Osvald1n = 5Chovanec took 4 of 5
S5Chovanec2Osvald1n = 3Chovanec took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricChovanecOsvaldC − OBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.242.0+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovanecOsvaldBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 63 vs 128 / 24944.4%51.4%28 / 63 vs 128 / 249Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsvaldChovanec 2.10/Osvald 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Osvald · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chovanec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 11 · 07:30P. Chovanec3951211113P. Osvald351110681
WOct 8 · 07:30P. Chovanec48119411133P. Osvald45311119112
LOct 1 · 07:00P. Chovanec4129111362P. Osvald521111811113
WSep 7 · 11:00P. Chovanec4391111123P. Osvald371188101
WApr 20 · 06:00P. Chovanec50111198113P. Osvald4173111192
P. Chovanec10
LOct 11 · 09:30P. Chovanec1.8781181162P. Osvald1.83115117113LOct 11 · 08:30M. Blejchar1.73111396113P. Chovanec2.00911111152WOct 11 · 06:30J. Hrabec1.80811671P. Chovanec1.9111811113WOct 8 · 09:00P. Chovanec1.571114113V. Cerny2.2571250WOct 8 · 08:00P. Chovanec2.101111113V. Cerny1.678870WOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133LOct 8 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.735890M. Blejchar2.001111113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Chovanec2.105101181L. Velicka1.6711126113WOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100LOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113
P. Osvald10
WOct 11 · 09:30P. Chovanec1.8781181162P. Osvald1.83115117113WOct 11 · 08:00P. Osvald2.00911119113J. Hrabec1.7311991172WOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald1.671111133M. Blejchar2.1053110LOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald1.60114221M. Blejchar2.2071111113WOct 8 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.10811561P. Osvald1.6711811113LOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133WOct 8 · 06:30V. Cerny1.80811118102P. Osvald1.91116811123WOct 3 · 13:30P. Osvald1.4711611113P. Bajtek2.40811571WOct 3 · 12:00P. Osvald1.6113611113P. Bajtek2.201111491WOct 3 · 11:30M. Kowolowski3.001171341P. Osvald1.36131111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Chovanec
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P. Osvald
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