TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Blejchar vs Pavel Chovanec 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191311911611115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Blejchar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Pavel Chovanec @ 2.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingMarek Blejchar above · Pavel Chovanec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Marek Blejchar at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Marek Blejchar 2–3 Pavel Chovanec Marek Blejchar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:05Sent to Pro: Pavel Chovanec @ 2.00 · Lost
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Blejchar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blejchar 1581 vs Chovanec 1551
Blejchar
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blejchar 40% vs Chovanec 100%
Chovanec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blejchar 60% vs Chovanec 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blejchar -2 · Chovanec +5
Chovanec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Blejchar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovanec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlejchar 1.727 / Chovanec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Blejchar)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13274875
Blejchar1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 101 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it85% 71 of 84
Chovanec2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 9 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBlejchar2wins
AwayChovanec3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderChovanec leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlejchar66.7%2 of 3
AwayChovanecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blejchar3Chovanec2n = 5Blejchar took 3 of 5
S2Blejchar2Chovanec3n = 5Chovanec took 3 of 5
S3Blejchar3Chovanec2n = 5Blejchar took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBlejcharChovanecB − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match30.231.2−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlejcharChovanecBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 643 vs 28 / 6249.3%45.2%317 / 643 vs 28 / 62Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChovanecBlejchar 1.73/Chovanec 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Blejchar · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavel Chovanec @ 2.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Blejchar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 8 · 06:00M. Blejchar331111113P. Chovanec225890
LOct 4 · 10:00M. Blejchar3866111232P. Chovanec501111710113
WSep 13 · 09:08M. Blejchar331111113P. Chovanec105410
LSep 13 · 06:00M. Blejchar321110741P. Chovanec4171211113
LSep 7 · 10:30M. Blejchar159330P. Chovanec331111113
M. Blejchar10
LOct 11 · 09:09J. Hrabec1.28911118113M. Blejchar3.5011921132LOct 11 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.758111071J. Hrabec1.4011912113LOct 11 · 06:00P. Osvald1.671111133M. Blejchar2.1053110WOct 8 · 09:30P. Osvald1.60114221M. Blejchar2.2071111113LOct 8 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.10811561P. Osvald1.6711811113WOct 8 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.75231111113V. Cerny1.4011114912WOct 8 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.735890M. Blejchar2.001111113WOct 5 · 09:30M. Blejchar1.501113113E. Gebek2.5031170WOct 5 · 08:00M. Blejchar1.531111123E. Gebek2.3806100WOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113
P. Chovanec10
LOct 11 · 09:30P. Chovanec1.8781181162P. Osvald1.83115117113WOct 11 · 07:30P. Chovanec2.1051211113P. Osvald1.671110681WOct 11 · 06:30J. Hrabec1.80811671P. Chovanec1.9111811113WOct 8 · 09:00P. Chovanec1.571114113V. Cerny2.2571250WOct 8 · 08:00P. Chovanec2.101111113V. Cerny1.678870WOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133LOct 8 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.735890M. Blejchar2.001111113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Chovanec2.105101181L. Velicka1.6711126113WOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100LOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Blejchar
P. Chovanec
Nothing scheduled
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